Winter '19 / '20 - Severe Weather Europe: FINAL November Model Forecast for the Upcoming Winter
"Most forecasts are showing certain lower pressure in
the North Atlantic, and higher pressure over Europe and USA, which means
generally milder winter. The forecasts are on the same trend since
September, which is very rare.
"Across the Atlantic, models generally
agree on potential northerly flows over NW and NE USA and E Canada,
while central USA currently has lower chances for winter weather
overall.
"We still have the stratosphere as a major factor.
Long-range forecasts are generally not as good at forecasting
stratospheric dynamics in detail, which means they tend to underestimate
any potential sudden stratospheric warming events (SSW’s) since the
final forecast is made out of many individual calculations, which have
different ideas about the stratospheric development.
"An SSW event can
have a major impact on the circulation and can cause major pattern
changes in the Northern Hemisphere. So a potential SSW event is an
important factor that can change the course of winter in either way
across the North Hemisphere."
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