Winter '19 / '20 - Severe Weather Europe: FINAL November Model Forecast for the Upcoming Winter

"Most forecasts are showing certain lower pressure in the North Atlantic, and higher pressure over Europe and USA, which means generally  milder winter. The forecasts are on the same trend since September, which is very rare.

"Across the Atlantic, models generally agree on potential northerly flows over NW and NE USA and E Canada, while central USA currently has lower chances for winter weather overall.

"We still have the stratosphere as a major factor. Long-range forecasts are generally not as good at forecasting stratospheric dynamics in detail, which means they tend to underestimate any potential sudden stratospheric warming events (SSW’s) since the final forecast is made out of many individual calculations, which have different ideas about the stratospheric development.

"An SSW event can have a major impact on the circulation and can cause major pattern changes in the Northern Hemisphere. So a potential SSW event is an important factor that can change the course of winter in either way across the North Hemisphere."

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