CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 11-APR-20 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

Snow Storm #1 (01-DEC-19)
FINAL Results here

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
20th Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

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18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here
Forecaster verification table here

Sunday, November 10, 2019

Winter '19 / '20 - Arctic Oscillation (AO): Leading Analogs' 500 mb Anomaly Height Composite ... as of OCT-19

Arctic Oscillation (AO) composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m Ta) for analog winters '53 / '54 ... '54 / '55 ... '59 / '60 ... '97 / '98 ... '14 / '15.

5H GPHa composite

- Overall North American pattern mimics Tropic/Northern Hemisphere's (TNH) negative phase often associated with +ENSO.

- Negative TNH ==> 1)  stronger than normal Pacific jet farther south of its normal axis and 2) well above normal temperatures in eastern North America.

- Active sub-tropical jet

- Positive GPHa over eastern Canada would 1) advect cP flow from hi-latitude snow fields into the eastern U.S. and 2) effectively displace the Hudson LOW from its climatologically favored location.

5H GPHa weighted-composite

2m Ta weighted-composite



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CORRECTION:  '54 / '55 ENSO should be 'C'

KEY
ENSO:  nada- (-0.5 < Region 3.4 SSTa <  0); C (moderate La Nina); W- (weak El Niño); W (moderate El Niño); W+ (strong El Niño)
NAO:  sign of D-J-F average
AO:  sign of D-J-F average
PDO:  sign of O-N-D-J-F-M average
QBO:  + ==> west; - ==> east

CORRECTION:   Analog table - PDO:  should be '-'

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