Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: RAW Forecasts

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Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!

Lincoln Memorial (1935)

Contest-worthy snowfall expected on TUE along the NW edge of a migrating LOW/s moisture-rich precipitation shield.

- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... MON 12-FEB-24
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM EST ... TUE 13-FEB-24
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM EST the day snow stops accumulating

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

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Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: JAN Snowfall Totals

NYC - Staten Island
12-DEC-60

JAN-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable)

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JAN Forecast Station Highlights
16 of 25 stations (64%) observed at least 100% of their monthly P-O-R-N snowfall
2 stations (ORH ... BWI) >= 150% above P-O-R-N

Biggest Losers
RIC ... ORF ... and RDU <= 10% monthly P-O-R-N
Not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed at RDU

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Season-total-to-Date
JAN P-O-R-N contributes 278" (30%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936"

JAN-24 observed snowfall:  291" (105% of monthly P-O-R-N; 31% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall)

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

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DEC snowfall totals here

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

PHL
East River Drive - Fairmount Park

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

SKILL: positive (negative) skill value indicates a
forecast/s improvement (decline) over the NWS forecast.

BIAS: arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and
the average Observed snowfall (averageForecast – averageObserved).

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: STP Verification - Preliminary

BOS - Congress and Water Streets
13-APR-33

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls from SAT and SUN based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

HYA
Derived from PNS vicinity report carried by BOS ... inspection of NOHRSC digital snowfall plot  ... and METARs.

Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is a quantity-weighted average.

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Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

NYC - 8th Ave.
08-Jan-25

Rookie      1
Intern      -
Journey      1
Senior      16
GOVT      1
PWSP      1
TOT      20

Forecaster table ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of a line from PWM - CON - BOS - ORH - BDL - BGM - ALB - PWM.
Lollypop expected at ORH.

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Teleconnections

-AO / -NAO need +PNA to deliver the mail into the M-A.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table here.

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

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Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Snowfall Totals

Smithstonian
1922

DEC-23 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but unmeasurable).

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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
None

Biggest Losers
Not one station anywhere close to climatology
12 stations observed trace amounts.
2 stations not a single flake ... ice pellet ... or hailstone observed.

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Season-total-to-Date
DEC P-O-R-N contributes 207" (22%) toward the season-total (D-J-F-M) snowfall of 936".
DEC-23 observed snowfall:  33" (16% of monthly P-O-R-N; 4% of P-O-R-N season-total snowfall).

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Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/ norm.daily.ao.nao.pna.aao.gdas.120days.csv 

 

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!

PHL
Wissahickon Drive (Lincoln Drive) c.1849

Long-awaited inaugural snow storm for our 25th annual NEWxSFC has finally come a'calling.  Whether it's a Miller-A or a Miller-B matters not with more than enough stations in play for a contest-worthy event.

- Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM EST ... FRI 05-JAN-24
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM EST ... SAT 06-JAN-24
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM EST the day snow stops accumulating

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

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Winter '23 / '24 - 23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

NYC - Rockefeller Plaza
26-DEC-47

All forecasts at Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecast data table here).

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Welcome and Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster snowman ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '22 / '23 ... is back this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below rank-orders forecasts by ascending season-total snowfall.

BLUE - Quartile 1
RED - Quartile 4
ORANGE - Winter '23 / '24's Chief 'Season-total' forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record Normal
CONSENSUS - average forecast for each station

Forecasts submitted with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  22
Total station forecasts:  550 (excluding P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecasts here).

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