Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Raw Forecasts

Raw forecasts here.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts - Take Two

26-FEB-1969
Boston

Appears to be a sloppy Miller 'B' storm poised to rake much of New England come Wednesday followed by the remnants of the parent LOW on Thursday.  Moderate strength HIGH to the north expected to keep columns cold enough to support a contest-worthy storm.

Might as well fuggetabout the classic nor'easter this season.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST TUE...28-FEB-12

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM WED...29-FEB-12
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM THU...01-MAR-12

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Liking Myself the Way I Am

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Fizzle

Update:

ORH measured 0.5"

No report from ORH at post-time.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts

UPDATE: 
'Call for Forecasts' CANCELLED.
---
Looks to be more than enough snow potential along the northern edge of the precipitation shield to warrant a contest...especially this winter when contest-worthy storms have be MIA.

JFK Airport
10-FEB-69

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.
---
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST FRI...10-FEB-12

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SAT...11-FEB-12
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM SAT...11-FEB-12

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.

Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '11 / '12 - Meteorological Winter - Month Two

NWS finally got around to issuing their month-end climo bulletins for NEWxSFC forecast stations.

Here's the state of this sad...sad winter.
Northern New England stations barely holding their own.  Most in the top third are half to just under two-thirds their climo total for December and Janaury.

Short of Superstorm '93 seqel...all of the middle Atlantic is down for the count.
Normal season-totals aren't very high to begin with...so all it would take is one good...slow moving coastal to make up current deficits.

Climo columns are the summed monthly totals for DEC and JAN.

Favorite teleconnections finally heading in the right direction over the last 10 days of the month.

Winter '11 / '12 - VCP32 - Commiting Suicide

It's been that kinda winter for snow crows.

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - Final Results

Mid-Atlantic/s warm and runny 'nose-of-doom'

herb@maws
SUMSQ:	35.15
SUMSQ Z:	-1.012
STP:	5.80	(2)
TAE:	19.60	(1)
AAE:	0.82	(1)
donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	39.49
SUMSQ Z:	-0.900
STP:	11.55	(4)
TAE:	19.75	(2)
AAE:	0.82	(2)
Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:	45.16
SUMSQ Z:	-0.752
STP:	1.85	(1)
TAE:	23.65	(3)
AAE:	0.99	(3)
weatherT
SUMSQ:	61.20
SUMSQ Z:	-0.336
STP:	13.29	(5)
TAE:	27.49	(5)
AAE:	1.15	(5)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s web site.



Winter '11 / '12 - Outlooks

From CPC (0.5 month lead)...

La Nina continuing to hold sway over the forecast area for the last month of meteorological winter.

More winter Outlooks after the jump.

Read more »

Winter '11 / '12 - Snow Storm #1 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Saturday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS...as of noon Sunday.

The storm-total snowfall for HYA is an estimate derived from vicinity reports in Barnstable county carried in the PNSBOX bulletin.

Several stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their liquid totals included mixed precipitation.

---
Two new daily records.
Saturday...21-JAN-12
PVD - 7.6" (6.6"; 1976)
BDR - 6.2" (6"; 2001)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Monday evening.