Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results
Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
| 1st - TQ | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 219 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.950 | |||
| STP: | 38.0 | (4) | ||
| TAE: | 46.6 | (2) | ||
| AAE: | 2.12 | (1) | ||
| 2nd - HWSNBN | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 233 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.914 | |||
| STP: | 25.9 | (3) | ||
| TAE: | 45.5 | (1) | ||
| AAE: | 2.53 | (3) | ||
| 3rd - Shillelagh | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 280 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.792 | |||
| STP: | 50.4 | (5) | ||
| TAE: | 56.4 | (3) | ||
| AAE: | 2.97 | (5) | ||
| HM - Roger Smith | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 349 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.612 | |||
| STP: | 9.6 | (1) | ||
| TAE: | 62.6 | (5) | ||
| AAE: | 2.32 | (2) | ||
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
Posts
6 comments:
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ma/boston/KBOS/date/2019-1-19
Three things;
1) The link is just the BOS PNS bulletin a re-formatted.
2) Vicinity snowfall reports from Suffolk county were much higher than the report from Logan. The closest report was 0.2 MI to the west of the Logan and ~3x greater.
3) As long as the NWS issues an official climate bulletin for a Contest forecast station ... the verifying storm-total snowfall comes from an official NWS bulletin.
4) Even if the snowfall amount from the closest public report was used to verify the BOS forecast ... changes in the final standings would only affect 4th ... 5th ... and 6th places (changed to 5th ... 6th ... and 4th).
Thanks TQ! Although it distresses me to Show just beneath HWSNBN, I am cheered seeing that the snow psests have been kind to you in this contest. Congrats!
Shillelagh
The simple fact is NOAA measures "Logan" snowfall & rain from Winthrop
and not East Boston.
Shillelagh wrote:
"I am cheered seeing that the snow psests have been kind to you in this contest."
As you may well remember ... it was Joe Bartlo who so astutely observed ...
"All your psets belong to me."
Forecasters need always be aware of where snowfall observations are taken to ensure they account for any effects that may affect the measurement.
Fer instance; PHL snowfall is not measured at the airport in South Philly but ~3 miles to the east ... across the Delaware river ... in National Park ... NJ.
Hartford ... CT snowfall is measured 13 miles due north away at Bradley Field (BDL) in Windsor Locks ... CT.
Time to add BOS at Winthrop to the list.
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