Winter '18 / '19 - We're the Heckawi

Mid-Atlantic winter wx enthusiasts couldn't ask for better synoptics than the current long wave flow regime.

- High amplitude ridge to the West.
- Full latitude trof in the East.
- Sub-tropical jet in a split flow
- Split stratospheric polar vortex with the stronger daughter vortice over eastern North America to boot.

So WTF?
If times be so good ... then bro ... where's my fookin' snow?

Us snow crows nesting here in the eastern half of the mid-Atlantic will most often get our winter wx fix when ...
1) LOW pressure spawns over the Gulf of Mexico & proceeds to crawl slowly up the east coast and

2) A strong Arctic HIGH (1040-ish mb; 30.70" Hg) parks herself over Maine and

3) The wavelength between the Ridge-West / Trof-East pattern contracts i.e., becomes shorter.  As the wavelength shortens ... storms spin-up (intensify) the same way ice skaters spin-up when when they draw their arms inward (see  Conservation of Angular Momentum)

Wicked winter wx 'round here has always been a tricky combination of having a deep layer of Arctic / Polar air in place ... ready to interact with moisture surging from the south.

The current long wave flow regime is certainly delivering in spades with the cold air component; however ... it's coming on too strong ... in effect suppressing moisture from coming north.

FWIW ... the world-wide federation of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have been tilting toward an adjustment to the long wave pattern in mid-range; a shuffling of the deck so to speak (more like re-setting the tumblers in a one-armed bandit).

Climatologically for snow crows ... FEB is our time 'round here ... especially the period either side of mid-month.  Whether the coming pattern change produces the weather we be waiting for is anyone's guess.

Even though long-range NWP offers us nothing more than possible outcomes ... outcomes more often fantasy than fact ... it's one of those j'ne sais WTF reasons why we all be Weather Weenies.

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