Winter '19 / '20 - Leading Analog: Winter '04 / '05
Through a careful multi-variate analysis of key teleconnection
indices and the process of elimination ... we/ve settled on the '04 /
'05 winter as this winter/s leading analog for the Contest/s forecast area.
Bottom line up front:
- Temperature: near normal except below normal over far northern stations
- Snowfall:
Above normal - northern half of forecast area
Normal to below normal - southern half of forecast area
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Consensus of dynamic and statistical model outlooks
ENSO: La Nada+ (0.5°C < ENSO Region 3.4 SSTa < 0.5°C)
Current PDO state (OCT-to-MAR) < 0
2019 trend analysis
QBO: W (+) going E (-)
2x2 contingency table (Chi-SQ Test for Independence) AO NAO
If NOV AO < 0 then 71% probability D-J-F average AO < 0
If NOV NAO > 0 then 73% probability D-J-F average NAO > 0
The analog winter/s key features follow:
ENSO: +0.5°C (lowest threshold of weak El Niño)
MEI: La Nada+
QBO: W (+) going E (-)
PDO < 0
AO < 0
NAO > 0
EPO < 0
Contest stations' cumulative season-total snowfall: 1,446" (AVG: 1,095")
Winter '04 / '05 - 5H GPHa (l) & 2mTa (r)
Negative 5H GPHa - W & Negative 5H GPHa - E ==> Trof-W / Trof-E
Neutral 2mTa over east coast; negative 2mTa over New England
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Winter '04 / '05 monthly anomalies (D-J-F)
DEC '04 - 5H GPHa (l) & 2mTa (r)
Positive 5H GPHa - W & Negative 5H GPHa - E ==> Ridge-W / Trof-E
Negative 5H GPHa INVOF Greenland ==> NAO > 0
Positive 5H GPHa INVOF Gulf of Alaska & Positive 5H GPHa eastern ATL ocean ==> AO > 0
Positive 5H GPHa INVOF Gulf of Alaska & negative 5H GPHa INVOF Hawaii ==> EPO < 0
Negative 2mTa over SE and Gulf Coast
JAN '05 - 5H GPHa (l) & 2mTa (r)
Negative 5H GPHa - W & Positive 5H GPHa - E ==> Trof-W / Ridge-E
Negative 5H GPHa INVOF Greenland ==> NAO > 0
Positive 5H GPHa INVOF Gulf of Alaska & Positive 5H GPHa eastern ATL ocean ==> AO > 0
Positive 5H GPHa INVOF Gulf of Alaska & negative 5H GPHa INVOF Hawaii ==> EPO < 0
Positive 2mTa over SE and Gulf Coast; negative 2mTa over NE CONUS
FEB '05 - 5H GPHa (l) & 2mTa (r)
Negative 5H GPHa - W & Negative 5H GPHa - E ==> Trof-W / Trof-E
Positive 5H GPHa INVOF Greenland ==> NAO < 0
Negative 5H GPHa INVOF Gulf of Alaska & Negative 5H GPHa eastern ATL ocean ==> AO < 0
Neutral 2mTa over east coast; positive 2mTa over NE CONUS
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Key
5H - 500 mb
2mT - 2 meter temperature
2mTa - 2 meter temperature anomaly
GPHa - geopotential height anomaly
ENSO - El Nino Southern Oscillation
MEI - Multivariate ENSO Index
AO - Arctic oscillation
NAO - North Atlantic oscillation
EPO - Eastern Pacific oscillation
PDO - Pacific Decadal oscillation
CONUS - continental United States
INVOF - in the vicinity of
Posts
3 comments:
Toronto had its warmest January day ever in Jan 2005, and then it turned very cold afterwards. So not an inactive pattern by any means. -- RS
Here's my forecast for the northeast US -- generally rather cold mid-Dec to early Jan, one or two big winter storms, then a very mild interval from early or mid Jan into Feb, reverting to a colder pattern after mid-Feb, more winter storm potential in late Feb and through March. Very large energy peaks occur this winter around new and full moons, whether the storm track allows these to be snowstorms or mild spells depends on other factors. The upcoming peak around Dec 25-26 may be a bit too far north for a good contest snowstorm, maybe the full moon peak (which is shifted a bit earlier by secondary factors) around 8th to 10th January will work well. I have a feeling the later January peak will be a record warm interlude. -- Roger Smith
Your outlook appears to align -- more or less -- with the character of our analog winter.
Really curious to see how well the analog verifies.
Will be in absolute awe & pleasantly surprised if it does.
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