Forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.
SUMSQ: sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
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| Accumulation-weighted SN:H2O |
Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for WED and THU from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins. Excellent coverage and reporting.
HYA STP estimated by applying inverse distance weighting interpolation of five timely reports within 3 SM of the station carried by the BOSPNS bulletin.
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SLR not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.
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Stations observing >= 0.1" 20 (74%)
Given a station had measurable snowfall; stations observing at least ...
4" - 16 (76%)
8" - 11 (53%)
12" - 7 (33%)
18" - 3 (14%)
24" - 2 (10%)
MAX snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)
BGM: 2.8"
ALB: 2.0"
BOS: 1.3"
MAX liquid precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
BGM: 2.8"
ACY: 2.06"
ALB: 2.0"
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New daily record(s)
16-DEC-20
BDR - 6.5" (2"; 1970)
ISP - 5.7" (1.5"; 1995)
JFK - 3.8" (1.3"; 1981)
17-DEC-20
BGM - 26.4" (9.8"; 1973)
CON - 24.2" (8.6"; 1970)
ALB - 19.7" (11.1"; 1970)
BOS - 12.7" (6.4"; 2013)
ORH - 10.5" (9.9"; 1970)
BDL - 7.8" (6.5"; 2016)
PVD - 6.4" (4"; 1961)
EWR - 5.9" (3"; 2016)
JFK - 3.4" (3"; 2016)
Storm total snowfall
Image courtesy NOHRSC
SFC analysis: 09z ... 17-DEC-20
Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT SAT evening.
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| MDT 07-FEB-67 |
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile
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| NYC 19-DEC-45 |
Rapidly deepening coastal LOW ... cold air damming ... and a potent fast-moving mid-level short wave combine mid-week for a rare 'contest-worthy' event in DEC.
Everyone is welcome to enter a forecast.
You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against
NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been
fairly easy to beat!
Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... TUE ... 15-DEC-20
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... WED ... 16-DEC-20
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when accumulating flakes stop flyin'.
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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account -- user name / password / valid e-mail (if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
The snowfall forecasting contest for Snow Storm #1 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least six-to-eight stations are unlikely to observe at least a 4" storm-total snowfall.
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It/s just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
NOV: +2.54 🔥🔥🔥
Only two other NOVs had a higher index ('78 +3.04; '93 +2.56)
TL;DR This winter/s average NAO index expected to be positive ( >0 ).
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Analogs and weights for composites:
'03 / '04 (1)
'99 / '00 (1)
'91 / '92 (1)
'93 / '94 (1)
'15 / '16 (1)
Each analog's average NAO for D-J-F was > 0.
NAO/s analog winters are assessed against the upcoming winter/s expected states of:
- ENSO (MEI moderate - trending weak La Nina)
- QBO-W < 10
- PDO (cool)
We removed '03 / '04 ... '91 / '92 ... and '15 / '16 from further consideration b/c they were +ENSO winters. Winter '93 / '94 had QBO-E so it too drops out.
Winter '99 / '00 survives with its weak La Nina --- QBO-W < 10 ... and a cool PDO.
The winter/s first nor'easter has moved into the Canadian Maritimes but not before laying down an impressive stripe of early season snowfall across northern portions of the forecast area.
On occasion the prestorm NWP output and expert guidance suggest a snowstorm will not be contest-worthy only to turn out to have been a contender.
Did NEWxSFC miss the call on this one?
Not every snowstorm expected to affect the forecast area will trigger a contest. The criteria applied to decide whether a storm is contest-worthy are loosely defined as one expected to:
- Affect at least six to eight forecast stations ...
- Produce more than a nuisance snowfall (>= 4") ...
- Be well progged by NWP ~36 to 48 hours before snow is observed at any one station.
So ... did the weekend storm rise to the occasion or fall short as expected?
Forecasters: 22
Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and Consensus.
Forecaster table ranked by season-total snowfall
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