CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 17-APR-21 @ 5 PM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Tuesday, December 1, 2020

Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecasting Contest: The Forecasts!

Forecasters:  22

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N) and Consensus.
Forecaster table ranked by season-total snowfall

BLUE - <= 25th percentile
RED - >= 75th percentile
ORANGE - Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster
P-O-R-N - period of record normal
CONSENSUS - median station forecasts

Some forecasts have decimal values and are recorded for verification purposes as such; however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

Total station forecasts:  600 (including P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)
Total station forecasts for ...
BELOW average snowfall - 205 (34%)
AVERAGE snowfall - 26 (4%)
ABOVE average snowfall - 369 (62%)

Confidence -- at least 65% of all forecasts -- for stations with ...
- ABOVE average snowfall:  2

- BELOW average snowfall:  13
BDL ... NYC ... MDT ... PHL ... ACY ... EWR ... BWI ... IAD ... DCA ... SBY ... RIC ... ORF ... RDU

All forecaster entries at the Contest/s web site here (direct link to forecasts here).


Anonymous said...

Go team snow, it's you me and Herb at the end of the queue waiting for our snow booster shots. Was sort of expecting to land closer to the middle of the pack but hey, it is what it is.

This is my general forecast, rather mild at first, becoming highly variable, fairly frequent nuisance snows and one or two big storms, then a very mild end to the season unfortunately, we'll need to do our business in January and early February I think, and lake effect will be heavy at times with the lakes currently very warm after such a warm November (analogue 1975) favoring high forecasts at BGM and helping a bit for ALB, BTV.

Good luck everybody, especially Team Snow -- Roger Smith

TQ said...

Despite its La Nina face ... I suspect the winter will have a few surprises up its sleeve.

DEC IRL has fooled just about every temperature forecast. DEC snows are fairly uncommon. Strong Miller A activity to boot.