Winter '20 / '21 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!
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| MDT 07-FEB-67 |
Forecasters
Rookie 2
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 15
GOVT 1
PWSP 1
TOT 21
NEWxSFC welcomes Rookie Forecasters NJTom and Leigh Rosenthal along with our returning veterans. Congratulations to Briannavaught for her promotion to Intern Forecaster and kc2dux to Journeyman Forecaster.
Don Sutherland retains his title as Chief Forecaster this winter b/c there was only one 'contest-worthy' snow storm last winter -- minimum three storms required -- to hold a valid contest and declare a winner.
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Forecasters ranked by ascending storm-total precipitation (STP)
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
WHITE STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile
Heaviest snowfall (+12") consensus along and to the right of MDT - ABE - BDL - MDT.
Lollypops expected at MDT and ABE.
At season/s start ... teleconnections more-or-less playing their assigned roles.
An encouraging sign!
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to the Contest/s web site here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Direct link to the table of forecasts here.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/storms/storm1_forecasts_16DEC20.htm
Posts
4 comments:
BGM 40.0
ALB 22.9
CON 24.2
PWM 17.6
(to 4 pm 17th, probably close to final)
stunning totals all along the max snfl axis thru pa ... ny ...vt. fluffy SLRs ... too.
One day and it could be in the lifetimes of the very young, NWP will recognize that max snow always seems to fall 50-100 miles north of where expensive computer models say it will. Except of course when it doesn't. -- RS
model qpf has long been nwp's weakest link in large part b/c unlike height and temperature fields ... it's parameterized. IMO ... NWP progs for the 552/558 ribbon @ 5H ... -3°C @ 85H ... and the 7H deformation axis were handled quite well.
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