Winter '20 / '21 - North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO): Analog Composites of 500 mb Height and 2-meter Temperature Anomalies ... as of NOV-20

 NOV:  +2.54 🔥🔥🔥
Only two other NOVs had a higher index ('78 +3.04; '93 +2.56)

TL;DR  This winter/s average NAO index expected to be positive ( >0 ).

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Analogs and weights for composites:
'03 / '04 (1)
'99 / '00 (1)
'91 / '92 (1)
'93 / '94 (1)
'15 / '16 (1)

Each analog's average NAO for D-J-F was > 0.

NAO/s analog winters are assessed against the upcoming winter/s expected states of:
- ENSO (MEI moderate - trending weak La Nina)
- QBO-W < 10
- PDO (cool)

We removed '03 / '04 ... '91 / '92 ... and '15 / '16 from further consideration b/c they were +ENSO winters.  Winter '93 / '94 had QBO-E so it too drops out.

Winter '99 / '00 survives with its weak La Nina --- QBO-W < 10 ... and a cool PDO.

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Season-total snowfall over the forecast area for '99 / '00 was above average across southern mid-Atlantic stations and generally below average elsewhere.  RDU was notable for its 26".

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The 500 mb and 2m T weighted analyses below are based on the winter of  '99 / '00.

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) analog composites of 500 mb (5H) geopotential height anomalies (GPHa) and 2-meter air temperature anomalies (2m Ta) for Winter '20 / '21.

5H GPHa weighted-composite
Main features:
Positive geopotential height anomalies from the International Date Line to the Prime Meridian
Negative geopotential height anomalies cover 3/4 of the Arctic

2m Ta weighted-composite
Main features:
Positive temperature anomalies across the CONUS and Canada
Cold AK ==> warm East

NAO analog data table (not ranked)
Analog statistic (not shown):  sum of squared errors