CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 17-APR-21 @ 5 PM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

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20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

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Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

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19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Monday, April 12, 2021

Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BOSOX Opening Day
(14-APR-53)

Congratulations to MillVilleWx for issuing the top forecast among forecasters in the 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest.

Climatology (Period-of-Record-Normal) followed by Consensus verified 1st and 2nd for the first time in the Contest's 20 year history.

Forecasters ranked descending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)

RED ==> 4th Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
BLUE ==> 1st Quartile 

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecast improved over climatology.
Skillful forecasts beat climatology.

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Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error


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Season-total snowfall from all stations (895") came in 4% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (929").

Winter '20 / '21 ranks 11th among the 17 Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

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Climo ... Observed ... Departure ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall
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Forecaster verification table at the Contest web site (direct link)

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/season-total/season_total_verification_2021.htm

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Teleconnections


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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to MillVilleWx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '21 / '22
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kc2dux/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

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Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

4 comments:

Shillelagh said...

Congrats to MillVilleWx! I presume Herb@MAWS will be presenting you the Green Jacket in the Butker Cabin?

I personally slipped a spot this year, from 2nd to 3rd. Always a Bridesmaid...next year I will sharpen up the darts i use to throw at the wall. ;)

And thank you TQ for being the man behind the curtain running the show!

MillVilleWx said...

Thanks again for giving the opportunity to participate in the contest. I'm pretty floored that I won the contest. Congrats to all the participants this year. This was an odd ball season that played out like a Nina did in spots, but not others.

I think we'll do a social distancing passing of the Green Jacket this year Shillelagh :)

Again, major thanks to TQ for running the site. An email will be made shortly.

Anonymous said...

Thanks TQ for the contest, I'm thinking you and I would have been top of the heap if there had been much snow in March, all I really needed was about 15" more at all the New England stations to do well. And we had pretty similar forecasts overall. The season basically ended a month early. We're in a pattern now where there could be one last gasp snowfall in the northeast but I suppose at some point the warehouse is shut down and cleaned out anyway.

Stay healthy everybody and we'll give it a whack again in November.

-- Roger Smith

TQ said...

thx to all for the kind words ...