Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results
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| BOSOX Opening Day (14-APR-53) |
Congratulations to MillVilleWx for issuing the top forecast among forecasters in the 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest.
Climatology (Period-of-Record-Normal) followed by Consensus verified 1st and 2nd for the first time in the Contest's 20 year history.
Forecasters ranked descending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)
RED ==> 4th Quartile
WHITE ==> Interquartile range
BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecast improved over climatology.
Skillful forecasts beat climatology.
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Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error
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Season-total snowfall from all stations (895") came in 4% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (929").
Winter '20 / '21 ranks 11th among the 17 Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.
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Climo ... Observed ... Departure ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall
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Forecaster verification table at the Contest web site (direct link)
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/season-total/season_total_verification_2021.htm
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Teleconnections
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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to MillVilleWx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '21 / '22
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners
2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kc2dux/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
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Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.
Posts
4 comments:
Congrats to MillVilleWx! I presume Herb@MAWS will be presenting you the Green Jacket in the Butker Cabin?
I personally slipped a spot this year, from 2nd to 3rd. Always a Bridesmaid...next year I will sharpen up the darts i use to throw at the wall. ;)
And thank you TQ for being the man behind the curtain running the show!
Thanks again for giving the opportunity to participate in the contest. I'm pretty floored that I won the contest. Congrats to all the participants this year. This was an odd ball season that played out like a Nina did in spots, but not others.
I think we'll do a social distancing passing of the Green Jacket this year Shillelagh :)
Again, major thanks to TQ for running the site. An email will be made shortly.
Thanks TQ for the contest, I'm thinking you and I would have been top of the heap if there had been much snow in March, all I really needed was about 15" more at all the New England stations to do well. And we had pretty similar forecasts overall. The season basically ended a month early. We're in a pattern now where there could be one last gasp snowfall in the northeast but I suppose at some point the warehouse is shut down and cleaned out anyway.
Stay healthy everybody and we'll give it a whack again in November.
-- Roger Smith
thx to all for the kind words ...
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