Sunday, April 11, 2021

Winter '20 / '21 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

VT - Stowe
(Marion Post Wolcott - 1940)

MAR-21 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank-ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (%MAR).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> Inter-quartile range
Red ==> 1st quartile

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
Stations at or above normal monthly snowfall:  none

Biggest Losers
BDR .. MDT ...PHL ... ACY ...BWI ... DCA ... SBY ... RDU (not even a Trace)

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Season-Total-to-Date
MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929"
MAR-21 observed snowfall:  19" (90% below P-O-R-N; 2% of season-total snowfall)
Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

Teleconnections
AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

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DEC totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html
JAN totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/02/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html
FEB totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/03/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html

4 comments:

Jessica Cain said...

Hi TQ!!

Been following along at home this season with the season total forecast---I'm finding it's a good way to teach myself how to use Excel. Anywho, I wanted to give you a heads-up on a possible discrepancy.

Monthly numbers look good. However, Excel spit out a different number on my end for the season grand total (D-J-F-M). I double-checked the old fashioned way---punched the monthly totals into a calculator, and I am still coming up with a season total of 895.3 vs. 929.

TQ said...

thx for checking the math.

929" is the sum-total 'normal' value for all forecast stations.
895" is the sum-total 'observed' value for same.

is there some ambiguity in the post?

Jessica Cain said...

**smacks myself in head**

100% my bad. I experienced an ID-10-T error. One of these days I'll learn multi-tasking is not my forte and not to have multiple tabs open.

TQ said...

no worries. roger smith catches my errors from time to time. always good to have extra eyes on the reporting ...