Winter '20 / '21 - 22nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

DC (30-JAN-66)

After FOUR snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ Z)

 

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

 

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ Z) 

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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28 unique forecasters submitted a total of 2,036 station forecasts.
14 forecasters entered all 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
8 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!