Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #4 at the Contest/s web site.

	1st - WeatherT
	SUMSQ:	155.34
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.241
	STP:	15.6	(1)
	TAE:	37.1	(1)
	AAE:	1.62	(1)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	185.76
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.032
	STP:	25.7	(3)
	TAE:	43.7	(2)
	AAE:	1.90	(2)
	3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
	SUMSQ:	211.0
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.859
	STP:	23.3	(2)
	TAE:	54.1	(5)
	AAE:	2.25	(5)
	HM - Brad Yehl
	SUMSQ:	226.3
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.754
	STP:	30.3	(5)
	TAE:	48.7	(3)
	AAE:	2.03	(3)

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 SUMSQ: sum of square errors
 STP: storm-total precipitation error
 TAE: total absolute error
 AAE: average absolute error
 (number): category rank

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Click images to enlarge.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Strong upper LOW in a highly amplified long wave regime progged to close-off and deepen INVOF eastern Great Lakes inducing the surface LOW to bomb over the near-shore waters of SNE.  A tropopause fold could make for some interesting winter weather down east.

Contest for Storm #5 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... FRI ... 13-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... SAT ... 14-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Storm #4 (08/10-FEB-15) from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.
Suspect observations:  none

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No new daily snowfall records.

MAX storm-total liquid:
BOS - 1.30"

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results THU evening.

Winter '14 / '15 - Interim Standings: 1

After three snow storms ... it/s Don Sutherland ... TQ ... and Donald Rosenfeld.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who have entered at least two forecasts are included in these interim standings.

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Complete interim statistics table and charts at the Contest/s web site here.
All verified forecasts from all forecasters for all Winter '14 / '15 contest storms here.

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SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score' ... then averaged to compute the standings.

If a forecaster has issued forecasts for more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests ... then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate the Interim and Final standings.  Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before computing the final grade.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: The Forecasts!

Rookie 0
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 9
TOT 10

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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).

BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Heaviest snowfall (+12") along and to the right of a line from ALB - CON - BOS - ALB.

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Anyone care to defend the conventional wisdom about the relationship between these indices and heavy snowfall in the east?

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #4: Call for Forecasts!

Rte. 128 in Danvers...MA
10-FEB-69

Similar set-up for the next event starting this week-end as for Storm #3.

Latest progs continue to suggest a long-duration event with waves migrating along an E/W frontal boundary where Gulf of Mexico moisture over-runs arctic air mass followed by Delmarva cyclogenesis.

Earlier than usual forecast call for Storm #4 a result of schedule conflicts Friday evening.

Contest for Storm #4 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... SAT ... 07-FEB-15

Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 08-FEB-15
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

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Enter your forecast at NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.

---
As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: FINAL Results

Full forecast verifications and summary for Storm #3 at the Contest/s web site.

	1st - TQ
	SUMSQ:	126.46
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.195
	STP:	14.6	(2)
	TAE:	39.4	(2)
	AAE:	1.79	(2)
	2nd - donsutherland1
	SUMSQ:	130.19
	SUMSQ Z:	-1.176
	STP:	25.9	(5)
	TAE:	38.8	(1)
	AAE:	1.68	(1)
	3rd - Herb@MAWS
	SUMSQ:	215.4
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.730
	STP:	16.8	(3)
	TAE:	44.5	(3)
	AAE:	1.93	(3)
	HM - Shillelagh
	SUMSQ:	239.5
	SUMSQ Z:	-0.603
	STP:	51.5	(9)
	TAE:	53.9	(4)
	AAE:	2.45	(4)

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 SUMSQ: sum of square errors
 STP: storm-total precipitation error
 TAE: total absolute error
 AAE: average absolute error
 (number): category rank

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Click images to enlarge.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: NESIS

NESIS:  5.42
Category 3 (Major)

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Storm #3 (01/03-FEB-15) from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.
Suspect observations:  none

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Twelve new daily snowfall records on 02-FEB-15
BOS - 16.2" (11.1"; 1974)
BGR - 12.3" (10.7"; 2011)
ALB - 11.9" (5.5"; 1982)
ORF - 11.4" (8.4"; 1974)
BDL - 10.8" (6.5"; 1916)
BDR - 10.3" (3.2"; 1985)
CON - 9.9" (8.4"; 1967)
BGM - 8.8" (6.8"; 1956)
PVD - 7.9" (6.5"; 1984)
IAD - 4.9" (3.5"; 1996)
EWR - 4.2" (3.4"; 1985)
JFK - 4.2" (3.3"; 1985)

MAX storm-total liquid:
ISP - 1.43"

Storm #3/s remarkably similar synoptic set-up to the previous BOS and ORH snowfall records.

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results THU evening.