CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 17-APR-21 @ 5 PM EDT

Winter '20 / '21 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
22nd Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL results here

DEC snowfall totals here
JAN snowfall totals here
FEB snowfall totals here
MAR snowfall totals here

Winter '19 / '20 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
21st Annual 'Snow Storm' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Season ended as quickly as it started.
No winner this go'round ... too few storms (minimum of three required)

19th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
FINAL Results here

Tuesday, February 23, 2021

Winter '20 / '21 - Forecaster Statistics

Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool
and Washington Monument (c.1930)

For each contest-worthy snow storm ... the forecasts are verified against the observations of storm-total snowfall.

Statistics are calculated to determine how well each forecast captured the magnitude and distribution of the storm's snowfall.

Individual forecaster statistics for the first four snowstorms here.

Statistics include:

The average normalized ‘SUMSQ error’ is the Contest/s primary measure of forecaster performance.

This metric measures how well the forecaster/s expected snowfall 'distribution and magnitude' for _all_ forecast stations captured the 'distribution and magnitude' of _all_ observed snowfall amounts.

A forecaster with a lower average SUMSQ Z Score has made more skillful forecasts than a forecaster with higher average SUMSQ Z Score.

The 'Storm Total Precipitation error’ (STP) statistic is the absolute arithmetic difference between a forecaster/s sum-total snowfall for all stations and the observed sum-total snowfall.  This metric … by itself …is not a meaningful measure of skill …but can provide additional insight of forecaster bias.
The 'Total Absolute error' (TAE) statistic is the average of your forecast errors regardless of whether you over-forecast or under-forecast.  This metric measures the magnitude of a forecast’s errors.
The 'Average Absolute Error' (AAE) is the forecaster/s ‘Total Absolute Error’ divided by the number of stations where snow was forecast or observed.
The ‘RSQ error’ (R-Squared - coefficient of determination) statistic is a measure of the how well the forecast captured the variability of the observed snowfall.

Combined with the SUMSQ error statistic … RSQ provides added information about how strong the forecaster/s ‘model’ performed.

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