Winter '20 / '21 - 22nd Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

DC (30-JAN-66)

After FOUR snow storm forecasting contests ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).
Individual forecaster's storm statistics here (direct link).

Best Forecasts by Storm (lowest SUMSQ Error Z-Scores)

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ Z)

 

SUMSQ Error Z is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error Z - TAE)

 

TAE Error Z is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall forecast errors at each station.

Top 10 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ Z) 

RSQ is a measure of the how well the 'forecast' snowfall captured the variability of the 'observed' snowfall (higher the better).

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28 unique forecasters submitted a total of 2,036 station forecasts.
14 forecasters entered all 4 contests.
5 forecasters entered 3 contests.
8 forecasters entered 1 contest.

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Hope to see y'all again next winter!

Snow chaos in Europe caused by melting sea-ice in the Arctic

"A 50% reduction in Arctic sea-ice cover has increased open-water and winter evaporation to fuel more extreme snowfall further [sic] south across Europe.

"When analyzing the long-term trends from 1979 onwards [sic], researchers found that [sic] for every square meter of winter sea-ice lost from the Barents Sea, there was a corresponding 70 kg increase in the evaporation, moisture, and snow falling over Europe."

Science Daily ... 

Winter '20 / '21 - 20th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BOSOX Opening Day
(14-APR-53)

Congratulations to MillVilleWx for issuing the top forecast among forecasters in the 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest.

Climatology (Period-of-Record-Normal) followed by Consensus verified 1st and 2nd for the first time in the Contest's 20 year history.

Forecasters ranked descending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE)

RED ==> 4th Quartile
WHITE ==>  Interquartile range
BLUE ==> 1st Quartile 

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how well the forecast improved over climatology.
Skillful forecasts beat climatology.

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Forecasters' stations having the lowest absolute error

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Season-total snowfall from all stations (895") came in 4% below the Period-Of-Record Normal (929").

Winter '20 / '21 ranks 11th among the 17 Contest years since winter '04 / '05 ... the season when BGR and BGM were added to the station list.

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Climo ... Observed ... Departure ... and Percent of Normal Snowfall
...
Forecaster verification table at the Contest web site (direct link)

http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/NEWxSFC_22/season-total/season_total_verification_2021.htm

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Teleconnections

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PRIZES
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to MillVilleWx/s front door):
... pick of the litter from NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications
... the august title 'Chief Season-total Snowfall Forecaster' for Winter '21 / '22
... a well-deserved place of honor with past Contest winners

2nd place prize (delivered post-paid right to kc2dux/s front door):
... second pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

3rd place prize (delivered post-paid right to Shillelagh/s front door):
... third pick at NEWxSFC/s library of meteorology and weather publications

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Prizes winners: please contact (newxsfc [at] comcast [dot] net) with a USPS address.

Winter '20 / '21 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Totals

VT - Stowe
(Marion Post Wolcott - 1940)

MAR-21 snowfall summary by forecast station.
Rank-ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (%MAR).

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> Inter-quartile range
Red ==> 1st quartile

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MAR Forecast Station Highlights
Stations at or above normal monthly snowfall:  none

Biggest Losers
BDR .. MDT ...PHL ... ACY ...BWI ... DCA ... SBY ... RDU (not even a Trace)

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Season-Total-to-Date

MAR P-O-R-N contributes 184" (20%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 929"
MAR-21 observed snowfall:  19" (90% below P-O-R-N; 2% of season-total snowfall)
Image courtesy NOHRSC @ http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

Teleconnections

AO / NAO / PNA data
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii

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DEC totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/01/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html
JAN totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/02/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html
FEB totals
https://newxsfc.blogspot.com/2021/03/winter-20-21-season-total-snowfall.html