Saturday, March 18, 2023

Winter '22 / '23 - Snow Storm #4: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Brattleboro ... VT (c.1890)
Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

Positive skill values indicate a forecast/s improvement over the NWS forecasts.

Bias is the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

No comments: