Wednesday, January 5, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!

An initially flat ... open shortwave in fast moving semi-zonal flow offers an opportunity for the first snowfall forecasting contest of Winter '21 / '22.  

On a more optimistic note:  NWP expects the shortwave to amplify as it reaches the coast.

While the progs aren/t offering much hope for a contest-worthy snow storm ... the latest NWS WFO point forecasts issued by BOX ... GYX ... and CAR point to at least six stations more than a nuisance snowfall (>= 4") could be observed.

NOTE:  snowfall expected to begin over southern interior stations before the 10 PM EST deadline.  Forecasts should include amounts observed on THU.  This is non-standard verification period driven by events (verification usually begins a few hours after the deadline at the start of the next day).

The forecasting contest for Snow Storm #1 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least six-to-eight stations seem unlikely to observe at least a 4" storm-total snowfall.

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... THU ... 06-JAN-22
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 06-JAN-22
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST on the day when flakes stop accumulating.

You also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been fairly easy to beat!

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account -- user name / password / valid e-mail (if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It/s just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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