Sunday, January 9, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #1: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Station by Station Comparison of Top Forecasters


Anonymous said...

Congrats to winners, this would probably not change the results but several stations have old pre-correction values in the results table, CAR should be 2.0, BGR should be 3.7, IAD should be 4.0 and BGM should be 1.8. -- I think this would mostly just improve everyone's scores slightly.

TQ said...

old version FTW!

should be fixed now.

tyvm ...

Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ! Pretty solid forecast grouping near the top for this one, which was pretty well behaved other than a couple SNE stations that overachieved.

Standby for Contest #2 if today's 12z NWP are starting to sniff out a big one. #HeWhoShallNotBeNamed should be foaming soon...

TQ said...

NEWxSFC now operating on DEFFOAM-1