Monday, January 31, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #3: Preliminary STP verification

Boston Commons
Parkman Bandstand - 1933

CORRECTION:  daily snowfall record for BDR (had been listed as BGM) and BOS daily snowfall for 1/28/22 from 0.02" to 0.2".

h/t Roger Smith

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Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for FRI through SUN from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins.  Several issues with coverage and reporting.

HYA
STP estimated from PNSBOX reports using inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse_distance_weighting

CAR
Resolved conflict between 29-JAN-22 daily snowfall reports carried by Daily Climatological Report (CLI) of 9.2" and Daily Climate Data (CF6) of 8.2" by comparing vicinity PNSCAR storm-total snowfall reports.  The 1" difference made no difference in final rankings of the forecasts; however ... minor differences noted in the SUMSQ Z-score statistic.

BGR
Liquid equivalent missing from Daily Climatological Report (CLI) and Daily Climate Data (CF6) reports for 29-JAN-22.  Amount estimated from METAR reports from AWOS at Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport (KBHB) in East Surry ... ME.

Liquid equivalents recovered from METARS for several stations with missing data in climate bulletins.

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Snow-to-liquid ratio (SLR) not reported for some stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

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Stations observing >= Trace:  27 (100%)

Given stations had measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 17 (63%)
8" - 12 (44%)
12" - 7 (26%)
16" - 5 (19%)
20" - 2 (7%)
24: - 1 (4%)

Max snow melt-water (minimum SLR 10:1)
ACY - 1.60"
CAR - 0.92"
BGR - 0.82"

Max precipitation (frozen + freezing + liquid):
ACY - 1.60"
CAR - 0.92"
BGR - 0.82"

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New daily record(s)
29-JAN-22
BOS - 23.6" (3.7"; 1957)
ISP - 23.2" (1.5"; 2014)
PVD - 18.8" (6.7"; 1912)
ORF - 14.7" (11.5"; 1973)
ACY - 14" (7.3"; 2014)
PWM - 11" (9"; 1957)
BDR - 9.6" (3.8"; 1973)
JFK - 9.3" (1"; 2014)
EWR - 6.6" (1.1"; 1986)
PHL - 5.8" (5"; 1904)

Orange cells indicate new daily record.
Trace amounts (0.05") are not included in STP.

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Storm total snowfall
Image courtesy NOHRSC

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SFC analysis:  18z ... 29-JAN-22
Image courtesy DOC / NOAA / NWS / NCEP / WPC

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
FINAL results expected NLT TUE evening.

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

Storm did a great job of removing nuisance records that were puny outliers, not such a great job of dropping snow in required amounts however. Nevertheless I was on to Boston, had the storm lasted a bit longer who knows ... I saw on Am Wx that max from the storm was likely 32" near Plymouth MA and some think there may have been local 28-30 in eastern LI. -- RS with good buddy Anon E. Muss.

Anonymous said...

By the way, in your list of daily records I think BGM should be BDR right? Also check BOS storm snowfall for 0.2" extra on 28th. -- RS

TQ said...

good catch on bgm / bdr. bgm came up all but empty-handed.

bos typo. 0.2 is correct; entered it as 0.02. eyes be gettin'old ...

TQ said...

3" / hr at Manchester Boston Regional Airport in NH ...

KMHT 291853Z 33022G29KT 1/4SM R35/0800V1400FT +SN BLSN VV004 M09/M12 A2939 RMK AO2 PK WND 33029/1852 TWR VIS 1/4 PRESFR SLP974 SNINCR 3/4 P0008 T10891117 $

Lowest vsby ...
KPSM 291956Z 34025G41KT 1/16SM R34/1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 M08/M10 A2933 RMK AO2A PK WND 35041/25 SLP936 P0004 T10811099

KPSM 291856Z 35024G36KT 1/16SM R34/1400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M09/M10 A2935 RMK AO2A PK WND 35037/29 PRESFR SLP943 P0004 T10861105