Thursday, January 20, 2022

Winter '21 / '22 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top Forecasts
Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

Station by Station Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Storm-total Snowfall

Forecast bias (average over/under per station) and skill score v. NWS ER WFOs.
For example ... Shillelagh's bias was on average a 1" under-forecast  The forecast was a 47% improvement over NWS ER WFOs.

2 comments:

Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ! I persevered despite KSYR getting the 850 mb punch in the warm nose....

TQ said...

storm 2 made for a tough forecast what with the occluding parent LOW and its multiple spawn scattered hither and yon ...