NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contests

"For every fog in August...
There will be a snowfall in Winter."

As folklore would have it...the number of foggy days in August correlates to the number of snow storms during the upcoming winter.

Now...there/s fog and then there/s fog. Only days where visibility was reduced to 0.25 SM or less were included in the table.

By the looks of it...SBY gets the best of it this go 'round...while there/s a whole lot of bupkis for much of the remaining Mid-Atlantic region.

The meteorology behind the lore suggests an August with a fair number of cold frontal passages that generate wet and cool conditions in their wake. Length-of-day gets shorter this month...allowing more time for nocturnal radiational cooling and the development of dense fog.

"Mean seasonal snowfall (November - March 1948 through 2006) in inches for Neutral years (top). Lower left map is the difference in snowfall between El Niño years and Neutral years. Lower right map is the difference in snowfall between La Niña years and Neutral years." (Climate Prediction Center)

CW going with distaff-leaning 'la Nada' ENSO this winter...so the top map...'Neutral Year Mean'...would be the expected snowfall distribution entering the upcoming winter. Looks favorable for an active contest season.

CPC/s ENSO Impact page also depicts temperature and precipitation anomalies.

WFO DTX issued its winter outlook this week. Its focus is the upper mid-west in general and Michigan in particular; however...it does have large-scale information of interest covering the NE CONUS.

(Updated below)

NE.Wx/s annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is your absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen; a recognition you so richly deserve.

Not only that...but if you win the Contest...you get a copy of "The Snow Booklet"...by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson or "New England Weather New England Climate"...by Gregory Zielinski and Barry Keim

What other incentive could you possibly want to enter the Contest ?

The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is Duke kc2dux
Last year/s results here.

Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall
Forecast period: December 1, 2008 through March 31, 2009
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or F6)
Error statistic: absolute error

Deadline: Sunday...30 November...2008 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the website to enter your forecast. Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

As always...there/re no costs...fees...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

Trolls, goats, hat3-lsiters, and psests need not apply.

Update:
Deadline for entries has passed. Forecasts have been posted on the web site.

Over 60 new snowfall records were set in the wake of last Wednesday/s strong early autumn nor'easter over the Upper Mid-west...Mid-Atlantic...and New England. See the 'record breaking' station list here.

If this pattern contiunes...the regular snowfall forecasting season will start early.

Larry Cosgrove issued a cold and snowy outlook for the upcoming winter today.
See it here.

~~You have to join the Weather America Google Group to read it or better yet...set your preferences to get his weekly discussions sent directly to your inbox.~~

Editted to provide link to full outlook without subscribing to the Google Group.

It/s interesting to note where in the world snow has been observed earlier than usual.

Snowfall causes slick roads, school closings in WNC (10/28)

"“We don’t usually get these events this early, but it’s not unheard of,” weather service meteorologist Scott Krentz said. “Normally we don’t see snowfall occurring until like the third week in November.
[...]
Snowfall amounts ranged from 3 inches in the Haywood County community of Cruso, 2 inches in Newland, Weaverville, Canton and Mars Hill to less than an inch in other locations."

MAP

Winter comes early to Britain (10/28)

"Winter has come early to Britain with frost and snow forecast for most of the country over the next three days.
[...]
Snow and gales are forecast for northern Scotland today, while most of England and Wales could see sleet and snow showers later, according to the weather centre Meteogroup."

MAP

Rare early snowfall forecast for Capital Region (10/27)

"The National Weather Service [in Albany, NY] predicts up to three inches of snow will fall in the Capital Region late Tuesday. If that happens, it will be just the tenth time in more than 130 years the area saw accumulation on a single October day. Of those nine previous instances, just two included more than an inch of snow.
[...]
"In the time since [recording keeping began in 1874], the Capital Region received more than an inch of snow on a single October day on Oct. 28, 1952, when two inches were recorded, and on Oct. 4, 1987, when nearly seven inches were recorded in Albany."

MAP

Winter arrives early with snowfall across the GTA (10/21)

"If you can believe it, six centimetres (~2.5") of snow is already on the ground in Orillia.

"Snowfall is being reported all across southern Ontario, with flurries coming down in parts of Toronto and York region and white-out conditions further north into the Barrie area and cottage country."

MAP

Winter arrives early in snowy Saskatchewan

"Environment Canada says that as much as a dozen centimetres (~5") of snow fell on Sunday (10/12) and the white stuff continued to fall overnight."

MAP

More...

Last October/s post about sCAST/s forecast for Winter '07 / '08.

Other NEWxSFC posts about sCAST here.

Cool before and after pix.

"With the exception of the huge polar ice sheet in Antarctica, the globe’s cryosphere, or ice zone, is melting, and nowhere is that more evident than in the glaciers of Alaska. Bruce F. Molnia, a research geologist at the U.S. Geological Survey, has compiled a striking set of photographs in a new book, Glaciers in Alaska, that documents that retreat.

Comparing archival photographs from the first half of the 20th century with present-day pictures, Molnia illustrates a stark reality: 99 percent of Alaska’s 100,000 glaciers are shrinking, and those at elevations lower than 4,900 feet are thinning and retreating with stunning swiftness."