Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Friday and Saturday.

Five new daily records were set on Friday.
ORH - 11.6" (10"; '45)
BTV - 8.6" (5.2"; '96)
ALB - 7.8" (4.2"; '86)
PWM - 6.5" (4"; '61,'45,1885)
CON - 6.5" (5"; '85)

SN:H20 @ HYA...ABE...EWR are estimates derived from METAR 6///// and P///// groups.

Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Monday evening.

Snowfall Expected for Most of Shijiazhuang This Weekend

From the Handan Daily...

At 17 o’clock yesterday, provincial weather services in Shijiazhuang released warning of the coming strong winds and cold weather. The experts from the provincial weather services indicated that at the end of this weekend, the weather in the whole province will change into cloudiness from the cold winds and most of the areas will have snowfall.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #3 - Winter '08 / '09

Don/t put those shovels and snow blowers away quite yet. More inventory on the way.

The third snow storm in less than a week is expected to affect the forecast area beginning Sunday. This one will approach from a lower latitude and undergo approximately 12+ hours of rapid deepening off the upper mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. A moderately strong arctic HIGH progged to hold its position north of the LOW throughout the event...locking in lo-level cold air. Aloft...a more potent upper LOW with a forecast 100+ kt jet max at the base of the trof...will enhance the system/s dynamics and storm-total snowfall potential.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.

Deadline: Saturday...20 December...2008 @ 10:30 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Sunday...21 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

If you are making your first forecast this year...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contest-worthy event?

Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts

18 forecasters...including 2 new Rookies. Moderate snow occurring early this evening and more on the way this weekend.

Station forecasts here.



Forecaster consensus for a wide-spread New England event with heavy snowfalls expected at many stations.



What/s up with that CW about 'needing' -NAO...-AO...+PNA for a significant snow storm?



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall continues over the forecast area at post time and is expected to continue into Saturday afternoon. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted early Sunday with the final results available on the web site Monday evening.

Snow Storm #1: Results

Wxduff made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s inaugural snow storm. His forecast verified with 10.3 SUMSQ error points (Z-Score = -1.106).

He hit the trifecta with 1st place finishes for Total Absolute Error (9.05") and Average Absolute Error (0.57"). His 86.3% R-SQ score was second-highest of all entries.

Wxduff made perfect forecasts @ CON HYA EWR and had the lowest errors @ BGR PWM CON HYA EWR.

Congratulations Wxduff!
Wxduff wins one FREE month of StormVista/s GOLD for his efforts.

2nd Place: donsutherland1 (14.4"; -0.939)
3rd Place: dmcguriman (19.4"; -0.675)

Rookie forecaster 'weatherT' came within 0.7" of the 26.7" storm-total snowfall.

Full forecast verification and contest summary here.

Snow Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Wednesday.

No new daily records were set.

Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Friday evening.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #2 - Winter '08 / '09

Round 2! After a slow start...we/re off the races.

Good prospects for a good dump as a second...stronger wave cruises into the forecast area on Friday for Snow Storm #2. Progs continue the idea of enhanced omega from coupled jet structure and strong...lo-level forcing courtesy warm-air advection.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.

Deadline: Thursday...18 December...2008 @ 10:30 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Friday...19 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

If you are making your first forecast this year...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contest-worthy event?

Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts

Twelve forecasters including three rookies for the inaugural event. Not much of a storm...but a good warm-up for Friday/s event.

Station forecasts here.



Forecaster consensus for a northern New England event.



No support from teleconnections. Just lucky to get a barely contest-worthy storm.



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall has all but ended over the forecast area at post time. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted Thursday evening with the final results available on the web site Friday evening.

Coupled Jets

Good looking signature ahead of Friday/s snow storm.

Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the entrance region of the polar jet advect cold air into the storm from the NW. Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the exit region of the sub-tropical jet advect moist air into the storm from the SE. Enhanced omega occurs at the intersection of these circulations.

GooFuS also throws in some additional forcing with strong...low-level...warm air advection.

Could be a memorable event.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #1 - Winter '08 / '09

The season has started!

Warm-advection snowfalls expected late Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday across northern New England. Monday evening/s NAM forecast projections have reversed course from its earlier anemic trend and now suggest storm-total snowfalls will be contest-worthy.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here

Deadline: Tuesday...16 December 2008 @ 10:59 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 EST Wednesday...17 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter to the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

New and returning forecasters will need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

------------------------------------------------------

The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contesy-worthy event?