Interim Standings

After three snow storms...Emoran holds a slim 0.027 margin over donsutherland1 with dmcguriman in third.

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least two forecasts are included in this interim summary.

Full forecaster statistics table and charts here.

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Snow Storm #3: Results

Senior forecaster emoran made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s third snow storm. His forecast verified with 79.2 SUMSQ error points (Z-Score = -1.013).

He completed the trifecta with lowest Total Absolute Error (25.45") and Average Absolute Error (1.21"). His 90.2% R-SQ score...a measure of how well a forecast captures the variability of the observed snowfall... was also ranked first.

Emoran had the lowest station errors @ CAR BTV BDL MDT PHL BWI and made perfect forecasts @ BDL PHL BWI.

Congratulations emoran!

Emoran wins one FREE month of StormVista GOLD for his efforts.

2nd Place: donsutherland1 (90.8"; -0.880)
3rd Place: Raven (101.5"; -0.758)

Three forecasters came within 5% of the 97.7" " storm-total snowfall.

Full forecast verification and results summary here.

Snow Storm #3 - Coastal Frontogenesis

Click image to animate.

Note the sharp temperature gradient between PWM and Buoy 44005. The buoy is located 78 NM east of PWM.



Rapid deepening of -2.7 mb / hr at 00z concurrent with strongest horizontal temperature gradient of 0.372°F / NM. Strong temperature gradients initiate ageostrophic circulations across the boundary leading to pressure falls and upward vertical motion.

PWM observed a record 14.5" snowfall from this storm. The old record of 12.4" was set in 1933. Snow totals are often suppressed at PWM b/c of its proximity to the coast; however...in this case...the station remained on the cold side of the coastal front and all precipitation fell as snow.

WSI - DEC Update - Winter '08 / '09

From Reuters UK...

""Most of the East should be quite mild in January, before the pattern shifts again in February and March to allow for below-normal temperatures to return to the Northeast," WSI forecaster Todd Crawford said.

"Although February and March are expected to be colder than normal on average, the Northeast will experience greater temperature fluctuations than other regions, WSI said.

[...]

""Current oceanic and atmospheric indicators are quite similar to those observed during the winters of the early 1960s, when cold western U.S. winters were commonplace," Crawford said."

NE CONUS (relative to normal)
JAN - warmer
FEB - colder (except NJ/DE/MD)
MAR - colder

Snow Storm #3: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Sunday and Monday.

Seven new daily records were set on Sunday.
PWM - 14.5" (12.4"; '33)
CON - 10" (7.9"; '14)
BGR - 9.7" (7"; '95)
BTV - 9.1" (7.8"; '10)
ORH - 8" (6"; '54)
ALB - 6.6" (5.7"; 1887)
BDL - 5" (2.6"; '75)

SN:H2O @ PWM and CON estimates derived from METAR 6///// and P///// groups.

Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Wednesday.

Snow Storm #2: Results

Journeyman forecaster Bruced39 made the best synoptic-scale forecast for NEWxSFC/s second snow storm. His forecast verified with 112.6 SUMSQ error points (Z-Score = -1.318). His 81.3% R-SQ score was also ranked first.

Bruced39 had the lowest station errors @ PWM BTV PVD BDR.

Congratulations bruced39!
Bruced39 wins one FREE month of StormVista GOLD for his efforts.

2nd Place: donsutherland1 (123.9"; -1.199)
3rd Place: emoran (125.9"; -1.179)

Five forecasters came within 5% of the 119.85" storm-total snowfall. Not only does the forecast need to get the storm-total snowfall right...but it has to be put in all the right places.

Intern / Rookie class: First-time forecaster Anthony placed first.

Full forecast verification and results summary here.

Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts

11 forecasters for this week/s third snow storm. One additional entry than reported last night b/c our server delayed transmission of a timely entry. Never before has there been so many contest-worthy storms at one time.

Station forecasts here.



Bonus snows expected over northern forecast stations with respectable amounts farther south.



NAO and PNA closer to normal...but AO flying high near outlier territory.



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall continues over the forecast area at post time and is expected to continue into Monday afternoon. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted early Tuesday with the final results available on the web site Wednesday.

Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41...PNS...and CF6 bulletins for Friday and Saturday.

Five new daily records were set on Friday.
ORH - 11.6" (10"; '45)
BTV - 8.6" (5.2"; '96)
ALB - 7.8" (4.2"; '86)
PWM - 6.5" (4"; '61,'45,1885)
CON - 6.5" (5"; '85)

SN:H20 @ HYA...ABE...EWR are estimates derived from METAR 6///// and P///// groups.

Please report errors in Remarks.
Final results and storm summary Monday evening.

Snowfall Expected for Most of Shijiazhuang This Weekend

From the Handan Daily...

At 17 o’clock yesterday, provincial weather services in Shijiazhuang released warning of the coming strong winds and cold weather. The experts from the provincial weather services indicated that at the end of this weekend, the weather in the whole province will change into cloudiness from the cold winds and most of the areas will have snowfall.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #3 - Winter '08 / '09

Don/t put those shovels and snow blowers away quite yet. More inventory on the way.

The third snow storm in less than a week is expected to affect the forecast area beginning Sunday. This one will approach from a lower latitude and undergo approximately 12+ hours of rapid deepening off the upper mid-Atlantic and southern New England coast. A moderately strong arctic HIGH progged to hold its position north of the LOW throughout the event...locking in lo-level cold air. Aloft...a more potent upper LOW with a forecast 100+ kt jet max at the base of the trof...will enhance the system/s dynamics and storm-total snowfall potential.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.

Deadline: Saturday...20 December...2008 @ 10:30 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Sunday...21 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

If you are making your first forecast this year...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contest-worthy event?