Winter '09 / '10 - NAO Forecast - MET Office

The UKMET Office...the British version of the US NWS...produces a statistical NAO forecast (reg. reqd.) for the upcoming winter.

The forecast for 500 mb heights is based on an analysis of observed and the 'predictor pattern' of SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic Ocean during the month of May.

"By taking the observed SST anomaly for May (figure at left) and calculating how it projects onto the predictor pattern we can make a prediction for the winter NAO. If the projection is positive (i.e. the anomaly pattern looks similar to the predictor pattern shown below) then the prediction is for a positive winter NAO. Conversely, if the observed May SST anomaly projects negatively onto the predictor pattern (i.e. it looks like the reverse of the predictor pattern) then we would predict a negative NAO."



There's a weakly negative statistical correlation between season-total snowfall in New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions and the NAO. This association is often mis-applied to individual storm systems -- if we could just get the NAO to turn negative...then we're more likely to get snow.

NAO forecast was quite good last year. Snow crows hope it's not as advertised this winter.

Now Playing: 2009 Tour of the Cryosphere

Press START to play.

Courtesy NASA.

Winter '09 / '10 - Farmer's Almanac

First out of the gate for the upcoming winter is the Farmer's Almanac...

"For the Middle Atlantic and Northeast States, for instance, we are predicting a major snowfall in mid-February; possibly even blizzard conditions for New England indeed, even shovelry is not dead)."

More...

Final Results - 10th Annual Regular Season Snowfall Forecast Contest

8 Storms
683” Total Snowfall
2,353 Station Forecasts

25 Forecasters
6 Rookies
3 Interns
4 Journeymen
12 Seniors

Don Sutherland has successfully defended his 'Chief Forecaster' title for the second year in a row by winning handily the 10th Annual NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest.

Don/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -1.025
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -1.171
AVG Error: 1.37"

The award for placing first is a copy of the two-volume set Northeast Snowstorms by Kocin / Uccellini and three (3) months of free access to StormVista GOLD

Second place goes to Shanabe...
Shanabe/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.743
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.765
AVG Error: 1.62"
Shanabe/s prize is two (2) months of free access to StormVista GOLD

Donald Rosenfeld finished in third place...
Donald Rosenfeld final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.737
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.660
AVG Error: 1.56"
Donald Rosenfeld/s prize is one (1) month of free access to StormVista GOLD

Honorable Mention: Raven
Raven/s final scores:
AVG SUMSQ Z-score: -0.564
AVG Total Absolute Error Z-score: -0.438
AVG Error: 1.83"

Complete results and season summary @ the web site.

Many thanks to Jack @ StormVista for his generous contribution of prizes to the top forecaster after each storm and again at season/s end.

Thanks also...to everyone who entered a forecast. Hope you enjoyed the many challenges and we look forward to seeing y'all again next winter.

Final Results - 8th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

Everyone/s forecast has been verified. The final results summary and verifications are available here.

Not a bad season overall. Sum-total snowfall was ~10% above normal.

Thanks to all who entered. Hope to see y'all again next year.

Graphic: Monthly 500 mb geo-height anomalies (D-J-F-M)

Update - 8th Annual Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest

The last day of March marked the end of the season-total snowfall forecasting season.

The four-month snowfall totals have been tallied...the forecasts have been scored... and the final results will be posted this weekend.

The sum-total snowfall for all 25 stations was 1,010"...about 10% above normal...and just shy of last year/s 1,039" snow-total.

VCP32 - Snowman Evolution

VCP 32 - Nothing But Noses and Eyes

VCP 32 - Snowmen Lead Tragic Lives

Snowfall Summary - February '09

February/s storm track...such as it was...returned to the upper mid-west and the Great Lakes region where it was at the start of winter.

Not a single contest-worthy storm occurred...although a handful of extreme northern forecast stations observed 8 - 16" snows.

Bangor (BGR) had the best of it...racking up 160% of normal (15.5") monthly snowfall. FEB/s total-snowfall alone made up 49% of the station/s D-J-F-M average snowfall and with one month to go...BGR is 148% of normal.

Philadelphia (PHL) was the only other forecast station to observe more than normal snows for FEB...which is rather odd...considering FEB is prime-time for most mid-Atlantic stations. PHL 8.4" was 118% of normal (7.1")and 42% of an average season/s snow total.

In spite of a lackluster month...Bridgeport(BDR)...Boston (BOS) and Concord (CON) stand @ 136%...135%...and 125% of normal snowfall for the D-J-F-M period.

Other stations above normal currently with one month left to go:
PVD (116%)
BTV (115%)
PWM (110%)
ORH (104%)

Caribou (CAR) is all but normal (98%) and will easily come in slightly above by 31 MAR. In light of the recent MAR 2 snows...most other stations have a good chance of reaching season-normal.

All but certain losers appear to be MDT...BWI...IAD...DCA...SBY...RIC...and ORF.

Green => Top 25%
Red => Bottom 25%

WFO Monthly/Daily Climate Data

NCDC Period-of-Record Snowfall Climatology