Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Raw Forecasts

The raw forecasts have been posted to the NEWx GoogleGroup.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday through Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS.

No snowfall data in the NWS climate bulletins for SBY. Verifying storm-total snowfall of 0.5" was estimated using a SN:H2O ratio of 12.5:1...the same as RIC.

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One new daily record.

SAT...08-JAN-11
ACY - 7.7" (6.6"; 1988)

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Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary TUE evening.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Something Happenin' Here

30+ kts of warm'n moist being ingested into the nascent LOW via cold conveyor belt.

Strong baroclinicity given the skinny-digit arctic dew points over land.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #1 - NESIS

NESIS:  4.92

Category:  3 (Major)

Rank:  18th

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Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts

Main Street
Camden...ME
1901

One storm exits stage left...new storm enters stage right.

I-95 corridor in the cross-hairs for its second heavy snowfall and high wind event this winter.  Progs indicate rapid deepening of a slow moving cyclone along the NJ and SNE coastline.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...10-JAN-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST TUE...11-JAN-11
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST WED...12-JAN-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - The Forecasts

17 entries

2 Rookies
3 Intern forecasters
1 Journeyman forecasters
11 Senior forecasters including Chief Forecaster Iralibov

Another great turn-out and a difficult storm for the season's second act.

All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's web site.
Follow the link from Storm #2.

Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.

Broad range of expected storm-total snowfall...
Min: 28" (Roger Smith)
Max: 128" (albwxexaminer)
Avg: 70"
Median: 64"
STD: 23"

Consensus heavy snowfall axis (+4") between EWR - BGM - ALB - ORH - ISP - JFK - EWR.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Raw Forecasts

Times Square...NYC
16-JAN-1965

This evening/s early NWP solutions don/t appear to expect much of an exciting synoptic snowfall event QPF-wise; however...there may be some surprise station STPs given there are v-e-r-y cold columns capable of creating copious crystal dendrites with uncharacteristically high SN:H2O.

The raw forecasts have been posted to the NEWx GoogleGroup here.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Call for Forecasts

Times Square...NYC
13-JAN-1954

Tonight/s 00z NAM consistent with earlier runs in its depiction of dynamically driven... meso-scale contest-worthy snowfall event over the northern mid-Atlantic and coastal New England regions.

Game on...at least for now.

Contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline:10:30 PM EST THU...06-JAN-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST FRI...07-JAN-11
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST SUN...09-JAN-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest web site here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fees...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '10 / '11 - Stratospheric Warming - Take 3

Appears associated with the ECMWF's forecast for hi-latitude blocking over Siberia beginning 1/11/11.  Note the dramatic weakening of the stratosphere's polar vortex between the initial panel (west @60 m/s = ~120 kts) and its reversal on D+10 (east @15 m/s = ~30 kts).

Also depicted on D+10 zonal mean wind chart are deep layer easterlies throughout the troposphere suggesting a strongly negative AO.

Chat with Dr. Louie Uccellini - "NE Snowstorms" Co-Author

"...3:00 p.m. ET on Thursday Jan. 6 for a live online chat with winter weather expert Louis Uccellini, the director of the National Weather Service's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), to discuss the USA's winter weather."

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