Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Teleconnections

Arctic Oscillation continues its long run at well below zero as a minor warming event takes hold in the stratosphere...shown below by the hi-latitude...above normal geo-potential heights (GPH).

Also note the AO/s classic tri-pole configuration...in this case with strongly positive 5H anomalies over the Bering Sea and a secondary maxima over NE Canada.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Storm Evolution at 500 MB

Graphics courtesy U of WYO

Winter '10 / '11 - The United States of Snow

Image courtesy NOHRSC

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - The Forecasts

12 entries

1 Rookie
3 Intern forecasters
2 Journeyman forecasters
6 Senior forecasters including Chief forecaster Iralibov

Another 'true' snow storm unlike some years where we try to forecast what is little more than a narrow stripe of snow under the northern edge of a mainly rain storm's comma cloud.

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All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page.
Follow the link from Storm #3.

Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.

Broad range of expected storm-total snowfall...
Min: 112" (TQ)
Max: 216" (emoran)
Avg: 176"
Median: 174"
STD: 31"

Heaviest snowfall axis expected to fall inside BOS - ORH - BDL- ISP - PVD - BOS.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Final Results

Daily Wx Map
08-JAN-11

1st - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 115.75
SUMSQ Z: -0.945
STP: 15.60 (10)
TAE: 37.60 (1)
AAE: 1.39 (1)

2nd - Donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 116.46
SUMSQ Z: -0.937
STP: 4.80 (2)
TAE: 39.70 (3)
AAE: 1.47 (3)

3rd - Mitchel Volk
SUMSQ: 121.70
SUMSQ Z: -0.874
STP: 14.10 (9)
TAE: 39.40 (2)
AAE: 1.46 (2)

HM - Emoran
SUMSQ: 129.88
SUMSQ Z: -0.775
STP: 7.80 (5)
TAE: 40.70 (4)
AAE: 1.51 (4)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category ranking

Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Raw Forecasts

The raw forecasts have been posted to the NEWx GoogleGroup.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday through Sunday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS.

No snowfall data in the NWS climate bulletins for SBY. Verifying storm-total snowfall of 0.5" was estimated using a SN:H2O ratio of 12.5:1...the same as RIC.

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One new daily record.

SAT...08-JAN-11
ACY - 7.7" (6.6"; 1988)

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Please report errors and a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary TUE evening.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Something Happenin' Here

30+ kts of warm'n moist being ingested into the nascent LOW via cold conveyor belt.

Strong baroclinicity given the skinny-digit arctic dew points over land.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #1 - NESIS

NESIS:  4.92

Category:  3 (Major)

Rank:  18th

More...

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #3 - Call for Forecasts

Main Street
Camden...ME
1901

One storm exits stage left...new storm enters stage right.

I-95 corridor in the cross-hairs for its second heavy snowfall and high wind event this winter.  Progs indicate rapid deepening of a slow moving cyclone along the NJ and SNE coastline.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...10-JAN-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST TUE...11-JAN-11
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST WED...12-JAN-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.