Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts - CANCELED

Contest 8/s 'Call for Forecasts' has been canceled.

Too warm aloft.
Too many stations expected to measure too little snow.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #8 - Call for Forecasts

Carmine St...Greenwich Village...NYC
19-MAR-56

Ratty-looking early spring storm over northern New England...as depicted by today/s 12z GooFuS...appears to have enough snow on the northwest edge of the precipitation shield to be a contest-worthy event.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST SAT...05-MAR-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...06-MAR-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM MON...07-MAR-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?

Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.

Winter '10 / '11 - VCP32 - Don/t Think It/s Gonna Change

Winter '10/'11 - Storm #8 - Open Thread

Whaddayathink?

Winter '10 / '11 - Interim Standings - #5

After seven snow storms...

Under the 'two-thirds' rule...the best 'two out of three' Z-scores are used to compute the interim standings. After Snow Storm #7...your top five Z-scores were used to calculate these standings. Data used to compute the standings are posted at the Contest web site here.

Z-scores are used to standardize / normalize forecast errors for each snow storm so at the end of the season...the 'equalized' scores can be averaged.

An expanded data table with higher resolution graphics and additional measures of forecaster skill at the Contest's home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ: 20.61
SUMSQ Z: -0.704
STP: 4.15 (1)
TAE: 16.85 (1)
AAE: 0.70 (1)

2nd - TQ
SUMSQ: 22.19
SUMSQ Z: -0.691
STP: 8.10 (3)
TAE: 17.30 (2)
AAE: 0.72 (2)

3rd - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ: 27.04
SUMSQ Z: -0.651
STP: 10.34 (5)
TAE: 19.34 (3)
AAE: 0.81 (3)

Honorable Mention - herb @ maws
SUMSQ: 29.81
SUMSQ Z: -0.628
STP: 12.70 (6)
TAE: 20.00 (4)
AAE: 0.83 (4)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(rank)

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Full forecast verification and summary at the Contest/s home page.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Sunday and Monday from CDUS41 and CXUS51...as of 11 AM Tuesday.

Storm-total snowfall for HYA and SBY were estimated from METARs.

Some stations in the data table do not have SN:H2O reported b/c their totals included mixed precipitation.

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One daily record.

MON...21-FEB-11
BGM - 3.5" (3.5"; 1993)

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Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Wednesday evening.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - The Forecasts

12 forecasters

1 Rookie
2 Interns
2 Journeymen
7 Seniors including Chief Forecaster Ira Libov
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All forecasts have been posted to the Contest's home page.

Entries are ranked in ascending order by 'storm-total' snowfall.
Please check you entry for accuracy.

Extra large range of expected storm-total snowfalls...
Min: 27" (Donald Rosenfeld)
Max: 118" (Roger Smith)
Avg: 59"
Median: 52"
STD: 23"

Consensus heavy snowfall axis from ORH - ISP - BGM - ALB - ORH.

President's Day sure ain't what it used to be.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Raw Forecasts

The raw forecasts have been posted at the ne_wx GoogleGroup.

Winter '10 / '11 - Snow Storm #7 - Call for Forecasts

NY Bronx Mosholu Parkway
FEB 1961

After a three week hiatus...NEWxSFC is back in business for a storm system progged to cut across just enough northern forecast stations with just enough storm-total precipitation to make it a contest-worthy event.

Please note the earlier than usual deadline of 7 PM. 

Verification period includes Sunday to capture the storm's leading edge of frozen precipitation expected over NW stations late Sunday evening.

The contest may be canceled prior to the deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST SUN...20-FEB-11
Forecast element: storm-total snowfall

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...20-FEB-11
Verification period ends: 11:59 PM MON...21-FEB-11

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise among winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Want to be notified via e-mail when a 'Call for Forecasts' is issued?
Send your request to newx at newx-forecasts dot com.