Winter '12 / '13 - 12th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: FEB Totals

FEB/s snowfall totals were smokin'hot with 12 stations above normal.
New monthly record set at BDR.

As of the end of FEB...season-total snowfall to date (D-J-F) over the entire forecast area was 4% above normal.

DEC and JAN monthly totals here.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts

Notwithstanding the Snowmen Prophets of Doom...another contest-worthy storm may just be in the making before this winter comes to a close.

Main event awaits Tuesday; however...call is going out early to capture snows across the M-A.

The contest for Storm #6 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EDT SUN...17-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EDT MON...18-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - VCP32: Snowmen Prophets of Doom

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 3

Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Final Results

1st - dryslot
SUMSQ:	459.50
SUMSQ Z:	-1.539
STP:	43.50	(9)
TAE:	64.50	(1)
AAE:	2.58	(1)
2nd - RyanKrimm
SUMSQ:	473.23
SUMSQ Z:	-1.472
STP:	40.00	(8)
TAE:	92.60	(5)
AAE:	3.70	(6)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	528.65
SUMSQ Z:	-1.200
STP:	16.70	(3)
TAE:	92.80	(6)
AAE:	3.57	(4)
HM - Donald Rosenfeld
SUMSQ:	577.19
SUMSQ Z:	-0.962
STP:	9.50	(1)
TAE:	87.60	(3)
AAE:	3.50	(3)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Tuesday through Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

HYA STP estimate based on the gradient between Marston MIlls (3") and Centerville (1.5") per PNSBOX.

Six new daily records.
WED...06-MAR-13
IAD - 3.3" (0.2"; 1989)

THU...07-MAR-13
ISP - 2" (1"; 1999)

FRI...08-MAR-13
ORH - 14.9" (9"; 1941)
BOS - 10.5" (8"; 1941)
BDR - 9" (3.5"; 2005)
ALB - 6.5" (6.2"; 2005)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results and storm summary Sunday evening.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5 - The Forecasts!

Rookie 3
Intern 1
Journey 0
Senior 9
TOT 13

NEWxSFC welcomes its newest Rookie...RyanKrimm.
Good luck to all.

Entries ranked by STP.

309 station forecasts.

Consensus for heavy snow (+6") from EWR-BWI-IAD and ORH.

Plowable snows from BGR-PWN-CON-BOS-BDL-JFK-ABE-MDT-PHL.

NAO finally shows up!

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast has been posted on the Contest/s web page.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Red Cross - BOS
1935


RAW forecasts posted to NEWx/s GoogleGroup page here.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts! Redux

Snowfall
-- liquid equivalent in mm --

Progs have been teasing a late season M-A event for days featuring a near-ideal synoptic set-up of a arctic HIGH pressure of moderate strength over eastern Canada/s Maritime provinces and northern New England and a slowly moving...quick deepening LOW off the NC coast.

The storm has come into better focus with the expected onset of frozen precipitation ~48 hours away at post-time.  SUN/s 12z runs shifted the max snowfall action center from SW VA and smack dab into the Contest/s M-A forecast area.

Areas on the map inside the light green (10-15 mm) indicate the GFS forecast for at least 4" of snow assuming 10:1 frozen-to-melt water ratio.

HPC/s late afternoon charts restrict contest-worthy snows to the mountainous regions of WV...VA..and MD...largely a result of a 'major compromise' among competing solutions.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST MON...04-MAR-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM TUE...05-MAR-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '12 / '13 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

Lighthouses at Long Point
Provincetown...MA
1875

UPDATE

Call for Forecasts - CANCELLED

12Z SAT NWP suggest not enough snow and not enough stations for a contest- worthy storm.

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(Originally posted 21-FEB-13 @ 8:35 PM EST)

**  Early announcement b/c of other commitments tomorrow evening and an earlier than usual deadline for entries. **

'Nother nor'easter heading into the forecast area this weekend with a decent stripe of frozen precipitation progged along in the NW edge of the precipitation shield.

No cold air source to the storm/s north along with LOW/s close proximity to the coast could put the kabosch on this event.

Only snow that accumulates after midnight Sunday will be used to verify the forecasts.

The contest for Storm #5 may be canceled prior to deadline if NWP indicates a fizzling event.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 7 PM EST SAT...23-FEB-13

Verification period begins: 12:01 AM SUN...24-FEB-13
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).
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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.