Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #3: Call for Forecasts

DC Knickerbocker Storm
27-JAN-22

UPDATE: corrected dates for entry deadline and start of verification period.

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Big changes in the overnight progs present opportunity for another contest and a short deadline for entries.

Even though QPF is somewhat skimpy, Arctic air will provide ideal environment for high-fluff factor and contest-worthy snows.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST MON...20-JAN-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST TUE...21-JAN-14
Verification ends:  when the snow stops falling

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

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Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Final Results

1st - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	99.9
SUMSQ Z:	-1.269
STP:	16.1	(7)
TAE:	43.1	(1)
AAE:	1.80	(1)
2nd - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:	130.2
SUMSQ Z:	-1.021
STP:	20.6	(9)
TAE:	47.0	(2)
AAE:	1.96	(2)
3rd - weatherT
SUMSQ:	173.4
SUMSQ Z:	-0.667
STP:	10.8	(6)
TAE:	53.2	(4)
AAE:	2.13	(4)
HM - Brad Yehl
SUMSQ:	186.2
SUMSQ Z:	-0.562
STP:	3.5	(2)
TAE:	56.8	(5)
AAE:	2.27	(5)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #2 here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2 - Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Thursday and Friday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

An apparent SN:H20 outlier at BOS; however, vicinity reports suggest STP is accurate.

No climate snowfall data for CON reported on SAT...03-JAN.  DAY2 snowfall estimated at 3.35" based on 0.18 precipitation at SN:H20 of ~18-to-1 (DAY2 average SN:H20 for PWM and ORH)

SBY 2.75" STP estimated from PNSPHI vicinity reports at SELBYVILLE (4")...DELMAR (4.5)...LAUREL (5.1")...BRIDGEVILLE (6.1")...KGED precipitation (0.45")...and SBY precipitation (0.21") and National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center  - Interactive Snow Information.

Twelve new daily records.
Back-to-back records at ACY...EWR...ISP...and JFK

THU...02-JAN-14
BOS - 10.6" (8"; 1904)
ALB - 7.1" (6.8"; 1987)
ISP - 4.7" (3"; 2010)
ACY - 3.7" (1.1"; 1962)
EWR - 3.2" (2"; 1978)
IAD - 3" (2"; 1978)
JFK - 2.4" (1.1"; 1984)

FRI...03-JAN-14
ISP - 6.5" (2.1"; 2010)
EWR - 5.6" (1.2"; 1981)
JFK - 5.5" (1.2"; 1988)
PHL - 3.4" (1.5"; 1988)
ACY - 2.8" (0.4"; 1988)

Please report any errors and drop a link to the correct data in Comments.

Final results available SUN evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookies:  0
Interns:  2
Journeymen:  1
Senior:  10

319 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a southern NE event.

Near-blizzard conditions and heavy snowfall expected, yet -NAO is MIA again.
The AO and PNA teleconnections again proving their importance.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

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Corrected to remove duplicate forecasts.
Web site forecasts updated...too.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #2: Call for Forecasts

Reading...PA
JAN-48

Apparent stream-phasing in store for Storm #2.
A dicey scenario fraught with danger for forecasters if the atmosphere fails to follow the script.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14
Verification period ends: when the snow stops.

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

---
Want to be notified via e-mail when the 'Call for Forecast' is issued?
Send requests to 'newx at newx-forecasts dot com'.

Winter '13 / '14 - Coastal Teaser #2

A Miller 'A' contest-worthy event possible later in the week.

If all falls into place, a 'Call for Forecasts' will be made TUE evening...31-DEC-13.
Deadline for entries would be 10:30 PM EST WED...01-JAN-14.
Verification would begin 12:01 AM EST THU...02-JAN-14.

Winter '13 / '14 - White Christmas

Area Covered By Snow: 41.7%

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #1: Final Results

Times Square
13-DEC-33

1st - Herb@MAWS
SUMSQ:	67.10
SUMSQ Z:	-0.980
STP:	8.70	(6)
TAE:	30.10	(3)
AAE:	1.31	(3)
2nd - TQ
SUMSQ:	90.43
SUMSQ Z:	-0.873
STP:	7.75	(5)
TAE:	31.95	(4)
AAE:	1.52	(4)
3rd - donsutherland1
SUMSQ:	109.74
SUMSQ Z:	-0.783
STP:	12.60	(8)
TAE:	29.40	(2)
AAE:	1.23	(1)
HM - kevinmyatt
SUMSQ:	112.63
SUMSQ Z:	-0.770
STP:	17.75	(11)
TAE:	36.35	(6)
AAE:	1.73	(6)

SUMSQ: sum of square errors

STP: storm-total precipitation error

TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number):  category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #1 here.