Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

VT

NOTE:  Deadline for entries 7 PM SUN!
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Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.

NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.

Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.

Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

JAN/s snowfall totals picked up where DEC left off with 17 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 139% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic stations continued to get the best of it.  Total departure was +100.4" above normal.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

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JAN totals for SBY and ORF are 11.5".
Could be a data entry error in the monthly CXUS51 Climate Report bulletins.

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Stations already above their normal season totals with two months left to go:

PHL - 176%

ORF - 139%

ACY - 132%

EWR - 109%

SBY - 108%

NYC - 103%

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with 16 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 145% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic and Maine stations got the best of it.  Total departure was +94.3" above normal.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #5 at the Contest/s web site here.

Valentine's Day 2014

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for WED through FRI from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.
Every forecast station observed snow.

Daily snowfall for SBY MIA from all bulletins, per usual.  METARs carried -SN for about four hours  with visibility no lower than 1 3/4SM.  P/0000 group during the period summed to 0.02" which earned this station an estimated 0.2" snowfall using a generous 10:1 SLR.

Many stations' SLR contaminated by mixed precipitation.

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Seven new daily records:
THU...13-FEB-14
ABE - 17.8" (3.4"; 1993)
IAD - 11.7" (3"; 1992)
ORH - 10.5" (9"; 1897)
BDR - 9.5" (4.2"; 1950)
EWR - 9.4" (3.3"; 1950)
ISP - 8.1" (0.7"; 2008)
JFK - 5.5" (3"; 1950)

00z 14-FEB-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Will try to have the Final results posted SAT evening before 10 PM EST.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: The Forecasts

Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 12

One entry received extra late is listed in the summary but will not be scored officially.

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319 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a mid-Atlantic and NE event with the lollypop expected at BGR.

Historic storm affecting the Gulf coast states and the entire eastern seaboard and none of the 'key' teleconnections bother to show up.

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: RAW Forecasts

Here. (fixed)

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #5: Call for Forecasts!

NYC - Bronx
Mosholu Parkway
FEB-61

Two waves in today/s forecast.

First one is Storm #5.
It's forecast to lift NE into eastern Canada late Friday.

Second wave progged to enter western PA during the day Friday and may turn out to be a contest-worthy storm.  If so, the 'Call for Forecasts' for Storm #6 would be issued WED evening...12-WED-14 with the deadline for entries at 10:30 PM EST THU...13-FEB-14.  The verification period would begin over western portions of the forecast area at 12:01 AM EST FRI...14-FEB-14.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall for the 1st wave

Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST...TUE...11-FEB-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST WED...12-FEB-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST FRI...14-FEB-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #4: FINAL Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #4 here.