Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: The Forecasts

9 forecasters
Rookie 0
Intern 1
Journey 1
Senior 7

160 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus across north and northwestern stations with lollypops expected at BTV and CAR.

<speechless>

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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site here.

Sorry for the 24-hour delay posting the forecasts.
Posting of the preliminary verifications will be delayed until Saturday.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: RAW Forecasts

Here

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #7: Call for Forecasts!

DC - 1917

'Call for Forecasts' being issued despite the current forecast appearing marginal for a contest-worthy event on Wednesday.  Would hate to let  a late-season event slip thorough the cracks.

Contest for Storm #7 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EDT TUE...11-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EDT WED...12-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EDT THU...13-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

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As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Final Results

SUMSQ: sum of square errors
STP: storm-total precipitation error
TAE: total absolute error
AAE: average absolute error
(number): category rank

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Full forecast verification and summary for Storm #6 at the Contest/s web site here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Monday from CDUS41...CXUS51...and PNS bulletins.

Good coverage and reporting.

HYA/s 2" STP estimated from PNSBOX vicinity reports.

No new daily records; however...IAD tied their record of 4.9" set in 1978.

15z 03-MAR-14

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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.

Final results Wednesday evening.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: The Forecasts!

13 forecasters
Rookie 1 (Welcome ezwx!)
Intern 1
Journeyman 1
Senior 10
TOT 13

182 station forecasts.

Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.
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Heavy snowfall (+6") consensus for a northern mid-Atlantic event with lollypops expected along the DC-BWI corridor.
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AO rides to the rescue (again).
NAO MIA (again).

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: RAW Forecasts

Here.

Winter '13 / '14 - Storm #6: Call for Forecasts!

VT

NOTE:  Deadline for entries 7 PM SUN!
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Complicated synoptic situation in store regarding the verification period for Storm #6.

NWP progs snow to begin accumulating at some M-A forecast stations by 00z/03-MAR-14 which is why the verification period will begin 12:01 AM SUN...02-MAR-14.

Twelve forecast stations along and north of a BGM - BDR - PVD line are excluded for Storm #6 because Sunday/s snowfall amounts at many these northern stations will 1) likely be in the nuisance category (< 4"), 2) already on the ground before the deadline, and 3) not involved to any great extent for the main event on Monday.

Excluded stations:
BGM
ALB
BDL
BDR
ORH
BOS
PVD
CON
PWM
BTV
BGR
CAR

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  7 PM EST...SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification begins:  12:01 AM EST SUN...02-MAR-14
Verification ends:  11:59 PM EST MON...03-MAR-14

Enter your forecast at the Contest's home page here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

---
As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or advertising...or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

---
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: JAN Totals

JAN/s snowfall totals picked up where DEC left off with 17 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 139% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic stations continued to get the best of it.  Total departure was +100.4" above normal.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below

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JAN totals for SBY and ORF are 11.5".
Could be a data entry error in the monthly CXUS51 Climate Report bulletins.

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Stations already above their normal season totals with two months left to go:

PHL - 176%

ORF - 139%

ACY - 132%

EWR - 109%

SBY - 108%

NYC - 103%

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-Total' Forecast Contest: DEC Totals

DEC/s snowfall totals got the season off to a promising start with 16 stations measuring above normal snowfall and 145% of normal for the entire forecast area where northern mid-Atlantic and Maine stations got the best of it.  Total departure was +94.3" above normal.

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GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below