Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Wednesay and Thursday from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.
Good coverage and reporting.

PWM/s 6.3 SN:H20 appears to be close since there was a brief period of mixed precipitation before turning to all snow.

Nine new daily snowfall records:
WED ... 26-NOV-14
CON - 10.3" (4.5"; 1956)
ALB - 9.6" (4.9"; 1888)
BGM - 9" (8.7"; 1977)
PWM - 7.4" (7"; 1885)
ORH - 5.3" (2.9"; 1921)
ABE - 4.9" (1.7"; 1925)
BDL - 4.6" (0.4"; 1985)
IAD - 1.6" (1.1"; 1978)
ACY - 0.05" (0.05"; 1977)

Two new daily rainfall records:
WED ... 26-NOV-14
ORH - 1.79" (1.78"; 1958)
RDU - 1.69" (0.98"; 1979)






Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Saturday evening.

Winter '14 / '15 - Snowiest NOV on Record in BGR

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
831 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014
...SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD IN BANGOR...

A MONTHLY TOTAL OF 25.9 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED AS OF 7 AM THIS
MORNING AT BANGOR. THIS RANKS AS THE SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD
SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 24.6 INCHES SET IN 1962.

AT CARIBOU...A TOTAL OF 26.7 INCHES OF SNOW HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS
NOVEMBER AS OF 7 AM THIS MORNING. THIS NOW RANKS AS THE 6TH
SNOWIEST NOVEMBER ON RECORD. THE ALL-TIME SNOWIEST NOVEMBER WAS
IN 1974 WHEN A TOTAL OF 34.9 INCHES OF SNOW WAS OBSERVED.
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Yesterday's 9.6" pushed BGR over the top.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #1: The Forecasts!

Rookies 0
Interns 0
Journeymen 1
Seniors 10
TOT 11

Total station forecasts: 245



Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
STP cells without color are between the 25th and 75th percentile.

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus across northern New England and inland portions of the M-A.

Again ... the primary teleconnections indices associated with heavy snow in the NE US are MIA.

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

RAW forecasts here

Winter '14 / '15 - Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!

DC's Embassy Row - Massachusetts Ave
11-NOV-38

Northern portions of NEWxSFC/s forecast area in line for an early-season contest-worthy snowfall featuring a weak Miller 'A' nor'easter.

This would be the earliest contest storm in NEWxSFC/s 16 year history beating the old record set in 2002 by one day. 

The 2002 storm dumped 9" at BDL ... 5.8" at PVD ... 4" at ORH ... and lesser amounts from PHL (T) to CAR (T).

'Call for Forecasts' e-mails will be issued this evening.

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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:  10:30 PM EST ... TUE ... 25-NOV-14

Verification period begins:  12:01 AM EST WED ... 26-NOV-14
Verification period ends:  11:59 PM EST THU ... 27-MAR-14

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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here.
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Contest for Storm #1 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.

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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast.  It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.

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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter...or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox).

Winter '14 / '15 - 14th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!

NE.Wx's 14th annual ‘Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest is the absolute best...biggest...and probably ONLY chance to be recognized for your long-range forecasting acumen.

All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 stations from RDU to CAR.

Deadline: SUN...30-NOV-14 @ 11:59 PM EST

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link from 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'

1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback and .pdf) and
"Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)

As always...NO cost...NO fees...NO advertising...NO annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest.  NEWxSFC is just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best season-total snowfall forecast.

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Forecast element:  sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period:  01-DEC-14 through 31-MAR-15
Verification:  NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or CF6)

Error statistic:  total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]

Update your forecast as often as you want prior to the deadline.
Only your last entry gets verified.

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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is WXCHEMIST.
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary...verification...and final results ==> here.

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The Contest is open to amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras...registered Nostradamusts...non-violent megalomaniacs...woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents...pest detectives...NE.Wx NG regulars and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather...including self-imposed exiles from Eastern...and of course...meteorologists.

In honor of USENET ne.weather's patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP)...trolls...goats...hat3-lsiters...and psests need not apply.

Winter '14 / '15 - Outlooks

Thread updated periodically as new outlooks and forecasts are issued from a variety of sources.

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Accu-Wx
"After record-shattering temperatures and high snow totals last winter in the Northeast, a similar theme will continue into the 2014-2015 season."

NOAA
"Last year’s winter was exceptionally cold and snowy across most of the United States, east of the Rockies. A repeat of this extreme pattern is unlikely this year"

Climate Prediction Center
(Experimental Unofficial Two-class Monthly & Seasonal Climate Outlooks)

Winter '13 / '14 - 'Regular Season' Contest: FINAL Results

NYC
27-DEC-47

Turned out to be a fairly decent season with eight contest-worthy storms.
(DEC - 1; JAN - 2; FEB - 2; MAR - 3)

Top Forecasters ('two-thirds' rule)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Brad Yehl
3rd - Herb @MAWS
Honorable Mention: TQ

Top Forecasters (entered all eight Contests)
1st - donsutherland
2nd - Herb @MAWS
3rd - TQ
Honorable Mention: Brad Yehl

More 'slice and dice' results at the Contest/s web site here.

Everyone's storm summary data here.

See y'all next winter!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

Full forecast verification at the Contest/s web site here.
See y'all next year!

Winter '13 / '14 - 13th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Forecaster STP

Table ranks Forecasters by their expected cumulative season-total snowfall (STP) compared to the cumulative observed season-total snowfall only.  It does not indicate how well the forecast verified.

Observed:  1412.7"

Period-or-Record normal (PORN):  934"

The cumulative season-total snowfall was 479" (51%) above normal.

GREEN - 75th percentile and above

RED - 25th percentile and below