Sunday, December 18, 2016
Saturday, December 17, 2016
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #1: Near Miss
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| ACY Boardwalk (1928) |
Heaviest significant snowfall (>= 4") at first-order reporting stations was observed along and either side of a line from CON - BOS - BDR - BDL - ORH - CON. In addition to these five forecast points ... PWM at 3.6" and CAR at 3.5" ended up being close enough to have warranted a 'call for forecasts' and a contest-worthy snow storm had the writing been on the wall Thursday evening. As it was ... NE snowstorm legend Paul Kocin painted a large swath of 40% probability for at least 4" on WPC/s afternoon package.
Models were late catching on to this storm/s potential. Similar circumstances plagued last year/s contests ... as well.
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Station / snowfall (")
BDL 6.5 (daily record)
ORH 6
BDR 5.3 (daily record)
CON 4.7
BOS 4.3
PWM 3.6
CAR 3.5
BGM 3.4
BGR 3.3
PVD 3.2
BTV ... ISP 3
EWR ... JFK 3 (daily records)
HYA 2.5 (est.)
ALB 2.4
ABE ... MDT ... PHL <1
ACY ... BWI ... IAD ... DCA T
Friday, December 16, 2016
Saturday, December 03, 2016
Thursday, November 24, 2016
Winter '16 / '17 - 16th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest - Call for Forecasts!
And it's easy.
All you have to do is forecast the season-total snowfall at 25 stations from RDU to CAR!
Deadline: WED ... 30-NOV-16 @ 11:59 PM EST
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Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.
Follow the link at the top of the page to 'Enter Season-total Forecast.'
1st place prize (delivered post-paid right to your front door):
"The Snow Booklet" by Nolan J. Doesken and Arthur Judson (paperback) and "Snow in America" by Bernard Mergan (hardcover)
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As always ... NO cost ... NO fees ... NO advertising ... NO annoying requests for personal information to enter the contest. NEWxSFC is just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best season-total snowfall forecast.
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Forecast element: sum-total season snowfall @ each station
Forecast period: 01-DEC-16 through 31-MAR-17
Verification: NWS preliminary climate reports (CLM or CF6)
Error statistic: total absolute error [Σ abs(forecast - observed)]
Update your forecast as often as you want prior to the deadline.
Only your last entry gets verified.
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The reigning NE.Wx ‘Season-Total’ Snowfall Forecasting Champ-een is snowman
Last year's 'Season-total' forecast summary ... verification ... and final results ==> here
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The Contest is open to amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized classes of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamusts ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents ... pest detectives ... NE.Wx NG veterans and lurkers; refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.
In honor of USENET/s ne.weather/s patron saint Mr. Joseph Bartlo's final request (RIP) ... trolls ... goats ... hat3-lsiters ... and psests need not apply.
Tuesday, November 22, 2016
Winter '15 / '16 Regular Season Snowfall Contest Note
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| Great Blizzard of 1888 - Wilmington ... DE Market St looking N from 10th St |
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No FINAL standings
Two contest-worthy storms were too few for a valid contest.
Under the 'two-thirds' rule;
Forecasters are included in end-of-season rankings
if they entered at least two-thirds of all storm contests.
Given only two contest-worthy storms during the season ... forecasters with one entry only would not have been eligible.
In the interest of fairness; forecasters should have at least three opportunities to enter ... so three storms seems like the bare minimum to make certain a valid contest.
Winter '16 / '17 - Outlooks
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