Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: RAW FORECASTS
Here
- courtesy Google Groups
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary Verification
Exceptions:
HYA
Storm-total snowfall estimated by interpolation of vicinity PNSBOX reports.
PWM
09-FEB/s daily CLI and CF6 bulletins carry 'MM' as daily snowfall at post-time. Storm-total snowfall as reported by PNSGYX. Value subject to change pending CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletin updates.
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Stations observed at least:
Trace - 21
4" - 14
6" - 14
8" - 9
10" - 7
12" - 5
14" - 2
Max melt-water at ISP (1.3")
Other stations with > 1" melt-water: BDL (1.19"); PVD (1.01")
Snow-Liquid Ratios (SLR) for areas with mixed precipitation ... such as PHL and MDT ... are not reported.
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Four new daily records.
09-FEB-17
ISP - 14.3" (11.1"; 2013)
PVD - 11.9" (9.9"; 1969)
ABE - 7.1" (5"; 1936)
BGM - 5.2" (4.6"; 1969)
Synoptic charts from the 1969 storm below.
New England stations reported up to 25".
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Synoptic charts courtesy U.S. Daily Weather Maps.
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results NLT SUN evening.
Friday, February 10, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #3: Call for Forecasts!
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| BOS FEB c.1930 |
Wave associated with cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies early SAT AM migrates quickly to the NE into New England during the day SUN. This feature merges with another LOW sweeping SE in the northern stream then bombs out and becomes q-stationary over 12-hours in the Gulf of Maine on MON.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries:
10:30 PM EST ... SAT ... 11-FEB-17
Verification period begins:
12:01 AM EST ... SUN ... 12-FEB-17
Verification period ends:
11:59 PM EST ... MON ... 13-FEB-17
Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.
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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.
Some 'Call for Forecast' notices via email may not be sent until SAT AM.
Thursday, February 09, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts
Rookie 1
Intern 0
Journey 1
Senior 15
TOT 17
Includes NWS 'official' forecasts ... as of the deadline.
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Forecasts are ranked by their storm-total precipitation (STP).
BLUE ==> 25th percentile
RED ==> 75th percentile
White STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Heaviest snowfall (>= 10") consensus along and the right of PWM - BOS - HYA - ISP - BDR - BDL - ORH - PWM. Lollypop expected at ORH.
What's that conventional wisdom about the NAO and NE snowstorms again?
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Everyone/s station-by-station forecast posted to NEWxSFC/s web site @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Preliminary snowfall verifications posted Saturday.
FINAL results on Sunday.
Wednesday, February 08, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: RAW FORECASTS
Here
(NEWxSFC Google Group Main Page: https://groups.google.com/forum/?fromgroups#!forum/ne_wx)
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NWS point forecast values to be added tomorrow (THU) evening.
Tuesday, February 07, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!
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| 06-FEB-61 NYC - 42nd St 17.4" |
Only twice before in NEWxSFC history has the month of JAN slipped through without a contest-worthy snow storm.
The opening bid at the start of meteorological winter/s final month has cyclogenesis off the Delmarva Peninsula early THU with the rapid deepening nor'easter/s track aimed straight toward the famed 40/70 benchmark.
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Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Deadline:
10:30 PM EST ... WED... 08-FEB-17
Verification period begins:
12:01 AM EST ... THU ... 09-FEB-17
Verification period ends:
11:59 PM EST ... FRI ... 10-FEB-17
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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page @ http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast.
 |
| 04-FEB-61 1 PM EST |
If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox.
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Contest may be cancelled before deadline if storm appears to fizzle.
Friday, February 03, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 - UPDATE 2
The well forecast major warming 'displacement' event is well underway.
Major warming: temperature increase >= 25°C over seven days.
Stratosphere Diagnostics courtesy Freie Universität Berlin / Department of Earth Sciences / Institute of Meteorology
Stratosphere analysis courtesy Tokyo Climate Center, Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency
Monday, January 23, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1 - UPDATE
Displacement event looms near month's end.
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QBO > 10 kt
Strong STJ (50 kt)
Weak PV (30 kt)
Flow reversals above 5 mb and below 300 mb
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Cold air mother lode sits over Hudson Bay with full-latitude trough attending.
Saturday, January 14, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Sudden Stratospheric Warming: Watch #1
A sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event may be in the works for the last week of the month.
After weeks and weeks of a high-speed rotation ... polar vortex (PV) forecasts suggest a significant slowing / weakening. Slowing of PV suggests a deep layer of easterlies (light blue; lower right corner) over the Pole.
Stratosphere Diagnostics courtesy Freie Universität Berlin / Department of Earth Sciences / Institute of Meteorology
Thursday, January 12, 2017
Winter '16 / '17 - Snow Storm #2 - Another NWP and Public Forecast Failure
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| NYC |
As of Wednesday afternoon (04-JAN) ... the progs and public forecasts for the Friday/Saturday award-winning event (06-JAN thru 07-JAN) all indicated a low probability (40%) for a meager 4" snowfall across a narrow slice of SE VA and NE NC.
When all was said and done ... heavy snowfall was observed from SE VA (up to 12") ... the Delmarva (up to 13") ... LI (up to 7") ... and Cape Cod (where near-blizzard conditions were reported and up to 16"). Eleven contest stations measured at least 4".
Four new daily records:
PVD 10.7"
ISP 9.7"
RIC 7"
SBY 9"
SLRs where at least 4" of snow was observed ranged between ~12:1 and ~25:1
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Some have suggested a 'Call for Forecasts' be issued whenever a potential snow storm looms.
That way ... a contest-worthy storm would seldom be missed.
Sounds like a good idea and it would be if there wasn't four hours of work involved when issuing the call.
Hundreds of email 'invitations' have to been sent (50 at a time ... 30' apart so as not to be flagged as spam or blocked by my ISP).
The contest/s web site has to be updated.
The contest/s web log has to be updated.
The contest/s Facebook page has to be updated.
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Then it becomes a judgment call during the evening of the deadline ... deciding whether the storm will be contest-worthy (six to eight stations with more than nuisance storm-total snowfall i.e., >= 4").
Collecting surface ... upper air ... and remote sensing data used in the final analysis and storm summary reporting takes time while the event is unfolding. All for naught if the storm fizzles.
Believe you me ... no one is more disappointed than me when a good snow storm slips through the cracks.
Bottom line: a contest-worthy storm has to be reasonably well-predicted by the numerical weather prediction models and WPC 36-to-48 hours before the first flakes fall for a 'Call for Forecasts' to be issued.
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