Winter '18 / '19 - VCP32: Anything Yet?
Friday, January 25, 2019
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2: FINAL Results
Forecasters' station verifications and the storm summary at NEWxSFC/s home page.
http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
| 1st - TQ | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 219 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.950 | |||
| STP: | 38.0 | (4) | ||
| TAE: | 46.6 | (2) | ||
| AAE: | 2.12 | (1) | ||
| 2nd - HWSNBN | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 233 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.914 | |||
| STP: | 25.9 | (3) | ||
| TAE: | 45.5 | (1) | ||
| AAE: | 2.53 | (3) | ||
| 3rd - Shillelagh | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 280 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.792 | |||
| STP: | 50.4 | (5) | ||
| TAE: | 56.4 | (3) | ||
| AAE: | 2.97 | (5) | ||
| HM - Roger Smith | ||||
| SUMSQ: | 349 | |||
| SUMSQ Z: | -0.612 | |||
| STP: | 9.6 | (1) | ||
| TAE: | 62.6 | (5) | ||
| AAE: | 2.32 | (2) | ||
SUMSQ Z: Z-score
STP: storm total precipitation error (")
TAE: total absolute error (")
AAE: average absolute error (")
(#): category rank
Dotted blue line below (above) solid red line ==> under (over) forecast
Monday, January 21, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2: Preliminary STP Verification
Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for Saturday & Sunday from CDUS41 ... CXUS51 ... and PNS bulletins.
Less than perfect coverage and reporting.
ABE
2.4" snowfall observed SAT.
No daily climate report for SUN/s snowfall.
METARs reported no frozen precipitation on SUN.
HYA
storm-total snowfall estimated by inverse distance weighting of vicinity reports carried in BOX PNS.
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Stations observing at least Trace - 17 (63%)
Given a forecast station observed measurable snowfall ... stations observing at least:
4" - 9 (53%)
6" - 7 (41%)
8" - 5 (29%)
12" - 4 (24%)
14" - 2 (12%)
Two new daily records
SUN ... 20-JAN-19
BTV - 15.6" (10.6"; 1978)
ALB - 10.4" (8.7"; 1978)
Also set on SUN ... new daily liquid records at ALB (1.25") ... CAR (1.45") ... and PVD (2.04").
Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results TUE evening.
Sunday, January 20, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2: The Forecasts
Rookie 1
Intern 1
Journey -
Senior 11
GOVT 1
PWSP 1
TOT 15
Welcome Rookie forecaster chefjustin.
Good Luck!
Forecaster table (supposed to be) ranked ascending by storm-total precipitation (STP)*
* didn't come off the printer quite right
BLUE ==> 25th percentile.
RED ==> 75th percentile.
White and grey STP cells range between the 25th and 75th percentile.
Heaviest snowfall (+12") consensus along and the the right of CAR - BGR - PWM - CON - BGM - ALB - BTV - CAR. Lollypop expected at BGR.
Arctic Oscillation (AO) coming up for air.
North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) floating high above the fray (again).
Pacific-North American (PNA) bottoming out ... then arriving late to the party.
Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to forecasts.
Friday, January 18, 2019
Thursday, January 17, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2: Call for Forecasts!
 |
| Brattleboro ... VT |
Lee-side cyclogenesis over CO on FRI expected to race east reaching the western stations of the forecast area by SAT afternoon.
Moisture-rich mid-latitude cyclone advancing into a quasi-stationary Arctic air mass over eastern Canada offers an excellent opportunity for widespread bonus snowfalls.
Contest for Snow Storm #2 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if fewer than six stations are likely to observe at least a 4" snowfall.
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Forecast element: each station's storm-total snowfall
Deadline for entries: 10:00 PM EST ... FRI ... 18-JAN-19
Verification begins: 12:01 AM EST ... SAT ... 19-JAN-19
Verification ends: 11:59 PM EST ... SUN ... 20-JAN-19
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Enter your forecast at the NEWxSFC/s home page here. http://www.newx-forecasts.com/
Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.
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As always ... there/s no cost ... no fee ... no advertising ... or annoying requests for personal information to enter a forecast. It's just a fun exercise for winter wx enthusiasts to see who can make the best synoptic-scale snowfall forecast. See how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region Weather Forecast Offices.
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If you are issuing your first forecast this winter ... or you entered the 'season-total' forecast contest ... you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail ... if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox). sent to your Inbox.
Monday, January 14, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Snow Storm #2
 | |
| BOS 12-JAN-76 |
UPDATE3:
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' slips to THU ... 17-JAN-19
---
UPDATE2:
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' TUE ... 15-JAN-19
Mid-latitude cyclone progged along leading edge of Arctic boundary (sub-zero post-frontal dew points).
Current guidance suggests mainly SNE forecasts stations in line for more than nuisance storm-total snowfall.
---
UPDATE:
Overnight runs failed to deliver a contest-worthy snow storm over the forecast area.
NWS WFOs in VA and SE PA bumped their STP forecasts early this AM; however ... only a handful of stations came close to exceeding the 'nuisance' Contest criterion.
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As of 8 PM post-time ... M-A/s weekend snow storm appears contest UNworthy (too few stations with more than nuisance snowfall)
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' slips to THU ... 17-JAN-19
---
UPDATE2:
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' TUE ... 15-JAN-19
Mid-latitude cyclone progged along leading edge of Arctic boundary (sub-zero post-frontal dew points).
Current guidance suggests mainly SNE forecasts stations in line for more than nuisance storm-total snowfall.
---
UPDATE:
Overnight runs failed to deliver a contest-worthy snow storm over the forecast area.
NWS WFOs in VA and SE PA bumped their STP forecasts early this AM; however ... only a handful of stations came close to exceeding the 'nuisance' Contest criterion.
---
As of 8 PM post-time ... M-A/s weekend snow storm appears contest UNworthy (too few stations with more than nuisance snowfall)
'Call for Forecasts' would come before noon ... if warranted.
Saturday, January 05, 2019
Winter '18 / '19 - Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest: DEC Totals
DEC-18 snowfall summary by Contest forecast station.
Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal (P-O-R-N).
Green ==> 75th - 100th percentile
White ==> less than 75th and greater than 25th percentile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 0 - 25th percentile
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DEC Forecast Station Highlights
RDU
- DEC/s 8.9" was 1271% above its monthly P-O-R-N of 0.7"
- finished a full year's worth of work on the 9th and 10th by racking up 8.9"of storm-total snowfall ... exceeding its annual P-O-R-N by 2.3".
RIC
- DEC/s 11.5" was 639% above its monthly P-O-R-N of 1.8" and contributed 91% toward its season-total P-O-R-N of 12.7".
ACY
- DEC/s 4.8" was 166% above its monthly P-O-R-N of 2.9" and 28% toward its season-total P-O-R-N of 17.3"
Biggest losers
DCA and BWI: 0"
Observed v P-O-R-N
BDL: 0.1" v 13.5"
ORH: 0.1" v 12.5"
ALB: 3.3" v 13.7"
CON: 3.4" v 13.7"
BGM: 7.9" v 18.2"
BTV: 8.6" v 18.8"
---
Season-to-Date
DEC normally contributes 210.5" (23%) toward the season-total snowfall (D-J-F-M) of 914".
DEC-18 observed snowfall: 85.3" (9% of season-total snowfall)
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Teleconnection indexes and month-over tendency (updated as they become available)
AO: +0.110 ⇧
NAO: +0.61 ⇧
PDO: pending
QBO: +8.05 ⇧
SOI: +9.3 ⇧
⇩⇧
Friday, January 04, 2019
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