Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

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Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!

BWI - Chesapeake Bay (1976)

Short wave impulse coming ashore in the PAC NW on FRI expected to excite lee-side cyclogenesis late SAT before moving across central portions of the M-A.  No consensus among NWP models as yet to the N/S location of the E/W oriented band of contest-worthy snowfall.

- Enter your forecast from NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM ET SAT ... 04-JAN-25
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM ET SUN ... 05-JAN-25
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM ET the day snow stops accumulating

The forecasting contest for Snow Storm #1 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least 6
to 8 stations are unlikely to observe 4" or more storm-total snowfall.

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

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Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

19-OCT-1940

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecast data table here).

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Welcome and Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster WXCHEMIST ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24 ... returns this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below rank-orders forecasts by ascending season-total snowfall.



BLUE - Quartile 1
RED - Quartile 4
ORANGE - Winter '24 / '25 Chief 'Season-total' forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record Normal
CONSENSUS - median forecast for each station

Forecasts submitted with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  20
Total station forecasts:  500 (excluding P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

 

Station forecasts for:

ABV normal:  66%

Normal:  5%

BLO normal:  30%

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecasts here).

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Last SIX winter's have birthed below-normal season-total snowfall.  Probably fair to say we're due; although we said the same ting last year :(

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The 26th annual individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes from a contest-worthy storm start flyin'.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on this fine blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.

Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s
Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting

NEWxSFC runs the longest continuously held snowfall forecasting contests on the World Wide Web.

Our 24th annual ‘season-total' snowfall forecast contest is a great opportunity to demonstrate your long-range forecasting acumen ... and if you get lucky ... win some books about meteorology ... too.

And it/s really easy.
All you have to do is predict the 'season-total' snowfall at 25 stations across the mid-Atlantic and New England regions from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR).

If you're new to season-total snowfall forecasting ... start off with climatology and go from there.

Deadline for entries: TUE ... 10-DEC-24 @ 11:59 PM EST (11-DEC-24 @ 4:59 UTC)

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.

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Winter '23 / '24 - 25th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Christmastime in Highlandtown (1950s)

After THREE contest-worthy snow storms ... under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least TWO forecasts are included in this season/s FINAL standings.

Full table with all other error statistics at the Contest/s web site here (direct link).

Individual forecaster/s storm statistics here (direct link).

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FINAL Standings

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Winter '23 / '24 - 23rd Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Congratulations to Senior Forecaster WXCHEMIST for issuing the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24.  WXCHEMIST also issued the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '13 / '14.

Complete forecaster verification table at the Contest/s web site.

Forecasters ranked ascending by their Total Absolute Error (TAE).

BLUE ==> 1st Quartile
WHITE / GREY ==>  Interquartile range
RED ==> 4th Quartile
ORANGE:  Winter '22 / '23 Chief 'Season-total' Forecaster (winner of  '21 / '22 contest)

The '%MPRV over PORN' metric indicates how much the forecast was better or worse than the Period-Of-Record-Normal (P-O-R-N).  Skillful forecasts beat P-O-R-N.

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Winter '23 / '24 - 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: MAR Snowfall Totals

BOS - Adams Square
(14-FEB-40)

MAR-24 snowfall summary by forecast station.

Rank ordered descending by percent of monthly period-of-record-normal.

Green ==> 4th quartile
White ==> less than 4th and greater than 1st quartile (inter-quartile range)
Red ==> 1st quartile

'Obs' reporting '0.05' denote 'Trace' amounts (observed but not measurable)

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Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: FINAL Results and Storm Summary

BOS - Fenway Park
(01-APR-97)

Complete forecaster verification table and the FINAL Results / Storm Summary
available at NEWxSFC/s home page.

SUMSQ:  sum of square error (")
SUMSQ Z:  Z-score
STP:  storm total precipitation error (")
TAE:  total absolute error (")
AAE:  average absolute error (")
(#):  category rank

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Forecast by Observed Snowfall Scatterplots for Top 4 Forecasts

Forecast/s dotted blue line below (above) the Observed snowfall/s solid red line ==> under (over) forecast bias.

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Comparison of Top 4 Forecasts and Observed Snowfall by Station

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Forecaster Skill Score (measured against NWS ER WFOs)

Skill: positive values indicate the forecast/s percentage improvement over NWS forecasts.

Bias:  the arithmetic difference between the average Forecast snowfall and the average Observed snowfall (avgForecast - avgObserved).

Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: STP Verification - Preliminary

VT - Marshfield cemetery (1953)

Preliminary verification of storm-total snowfalls for WED though FRI based on reporting from CDUS41 (CLI) ... CXUS51 (CF6) ... METARs ... and PNS bulletins issued by NWS.

Excellent coverage and reporting.

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Snow-to-liquid ratios (SLR) less than 8:1 are not reported for stations with measurable snowfall b/c significant liquid and / or freezing precipitation also occurred during the verification period.

The 'TOT SLR' field is the quantity-weighted average of those forecast stations with at least an 8:1 SLR.

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Winter '23 / '24 - Snow Storm #3: The Forecasts!

Rookie      -
Intern      -
Journey      -
Senior      9
GOVT      1
PWSP      -
TOT      10 

Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)

BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE and GREY STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Heaviest snowfall (+6") consensus along and to the right of BGR - PWM - CON - BGR.  Lollypop expected at CON.

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Teleconnections

Everyone/s station-by-station forecast at the Contest/s web site.
Direct link to the forecast table.