Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts!

BWI - Park Avenue (1948)

Rookie  0
Intern    0
Journey  0
Senior  13
Chief      1
GOVT    1
PWSP    1
TOT      16
 
Forecaster table ranked ascending by the forecast storm-total precipitation (STP)



BLUE ==> 1st quartile
RED ==> 4th quartile
WHITE STP cells range between the 1st and 4th quartile

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Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: RAW Forecasts

 Click through on 'Read more>>' to see forecasts.

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Winter '24 / '25 - Snow Storm #1: Call for Forecasts!

BWI - Chesapeake Bay (1976)

Short wave impulse coming ashore in the PAC NW on FRI expected to excite lee-side cyclogenesis late SAT before moving across central portions of the M-A.  No consensus among NWP models as yet to the N/S location of the E/W oriented band of contest-worthy snowfall.

- Enter your forecast from NEWxSFC/s home page at http://www.newx-forecasts.com/

- Follow the top-of-page link from 'Enter Snow Storm Forecast'

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Forecast element: each station/s storm-total snowfall

Deadline for entries:  10 PM ET SAT ... 04-JAN-25
Verification period BEGINS:  12:01 AM ET SUN ... 05-JAN-25
Verification period ENDS:  11:59 PM ET the day snow stops accumulating

The forecasting contest for Snow Storm #1 may be cancelled prior to the deadline if at least 6
to 8 stations are unlikely to observe 4" or more storm-total snowfall.

By entering ... you also get the chance to see how well your forecast stacks up against NWS Eastern Region's Weather Forecast Offices. Turns out they/ve been easy to beat!

Who Can Enter
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; any and all other weather-biz types and / or wanna-bees; wish-casters ... astrologers ... along with any other universally recognized class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras ... registered Nostradamuses ... non-violent megalomaniacs ... woolly-bear caterpillars or their Agents ... pest detectives ... ne.wx news group survivors; riders on the StormVista ... refugees from AmericanWx and/or USWeather free agents ... including self-imposed exiles from Eastern Wx ... and of course ... meteorologists.

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Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: The Forecasts!

19-OCT-1940

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecast data table here).

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Welcome and Good Luck to All 🍀🍀🍀

Senior NEWxSFC forecaster WXCHEMIST ... having made the best 'season-total' snowfall forecast for Winter '23 / '24 ... returns this year to defend his 'Chief Season-total Forecaster' title.

Forecasters also compete against the Period-of-Record Normal (P-O-R-N) and CONSENSUS.

Table below rank-orders forecasts by ascending season-total snowfall.



BLUE - Quartile 1
RED - Quartile 4
ORANGE - Winter '24 / '25 Chief 'Season-total' forecaster

P-O-R-N - Period-Of-Record Normal
CONSENSUS - median forecast for each station

Forecasts submitted with decimal values have been recorded as such for verification;  however ... rounding was applied for display purposes only.

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Forecasters:  20
Total station forecasts:  500 (excluding P-O-R-N & CONSENSUS)

 

Station forecasts for:

ABV normal:  66%

Normal:  5%

BLO normal:  30%

All forecasts at the Contest/s web site. (direct link to forecasts here).

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Last SIX winter's have birthed below-normal season-total snowfall.  Probably fair to say we're due; although we said the same ting last year :(

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The 26th annual individual snow storm forecast contests start when the flakes from a contest-worthy storm start flyin'.

'Call for Forecasts' announcements issued on this fine blog ... web site ... Facebook ... and via email.

Winter '24 / '25 - 24th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest: Call for Forecasts!

NEWxSFC/s
Director of Season-total Snowfall Forecasting

NEWxSFC runs the longest continuously held snowfall forecasting contests on the World Wide Web.

Our 24th annual ‘season-total' snowfall forecast contest is a great opportunity to demonstrate your long-range forecasting acumen ... and if you get lucky ... win some books about meteorology ... too.

And it/s really easy.
All you have to do is predict the 'season-total' snowfall at 25 stations across the mid-Atlantic and New England regions from Raleigh ... NC (RDU) to Caribou ... ME (CAR).

If you're new to season-total snowfall forecasting ... start off with climatology and go from there.

Deadline for entries: TUE ... 10-DEC-24 @ 11:59 PM EST (11-DEC-24 @ 4:59 UTC)

Visit the Contest's website to enter your forecast.

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