CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 14-APR-18 @ 9 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Brad Yehl
2nd Place: Don Sutherland
3rd Place: NWS ER WFOs
HM: Herb @MAWS

17th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
- FINAL Results here
1st Place: Don Sutherland
2nd Place: Mitchel Volk
3rd Place: Brad Yehl
Climo: 5th place

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, October 20, 2008

MET Office - NAO Forecast '08 / '09

The UKMET Office...the British version of the US NWS...produces a statistical NAO forecast for the upcoming winter.
The forecast for 500 mb heights is based on a analysis of observed and the 'predictor pattern' of SST anomalies in the northern Atlantic Ocean.
"By taking the observed SST anomaly for May (figure above) and calculating how it projects onto the predictor pattern we can make a prediction for the winter NAO. If the projection is positive (i.e. the anomaly pattern looks similar to the predictor pattern) then the prediction is for a positive winter NAO. Conversely, if the observed May SST anomaly projects negatively onto the predictor pattern (i.e. it looks like the reverse of the predictor pattern) then we would predict a negative NAO."
"The figure below shows that the predicted winter NAO index for 2008/9 is weakly positive at +0.1 with a standard error of ±1.0. The small amplitude of the predicted index relative to the error bar means that the NAO prediction this year provides little signal for below- or above-normal European winter temperatures or precipitation. However, the prediction is consistent with a cooler, drier winter over northern Europe as a whole than experienced in winter 2007/8, when the observed index was +1.6."

Note...however...last year/s prediction (-0.05) was essentially the same as this year/s and last year/s observed NAO was +1.6.
Move along. Not much skill here. At least not in the past few years.

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