Coastal Teaser #2 - DEC '08

(updated below - update II)

Healthy-looking nor'easter progged for end of the week...one that could affect about half the forecast area with this year/s inaugural contest storm. There/s a retreating HIGH as the storm gains latitude; however...cyclogenesis off the VA Capes would keep some of the cold air from escaping.

QPF @ 10:1 spits out 10"+ for ALB...CON...PWM...and BGR. Columns are currently depicted as cold enough for higher ratios...but let/s not get too far ahead of the story. Hard to tell where the cloud-tops are from GooFuS soundings b/c the moisture layers aloft are always depicted as being too deep.



Better get a snow storm in now while there/s cold air afoot b/c LR solutions have a decidedly 'mild' look to them well into Week 2.

If this scenario plays out...a call for forecasts would be made Wednesday evening with a late Thursday deadline.

UPDATE:
12/9/12z progs not all that encouraging for enough frozen precipitation at more than a handful of forecast stations nor are they in good agreement wrt timing. Yesterday/s GooFuS had the event Friday into Saturday...now it/s moved up a day.



HPC paints a 40% probability mainly over northern New England...with icing farther south across CT and MA.

GO / NO GO decision pending this evening/s model run(s).

UPDATE II:
12/10/00z NAM continues recent trend in its depiction of THU / FRI nor'easter as mainly a cold rain event over the forecast area with narrow band of IP / SN limited to northern edge of precipitation shield.

Potential appears marginal at this time for adequate conditions to warrant a call for forecasts.