Winter '10 / '11 - Stratospheric Warming - Another Try

Last signal failed to pan-out.  Probability a long-shot given the poor odds for warmings with QBO in its positive / west phase....except when sunspot activity is high.

ECMWF hinting again at a break in the polar vortex (PV) last next week.

Note 1) the PV's pending split with separate circulation developing over the pole / central Russia and 2) the yellow area north-west of the Hudson Bay.  The yellow indicates warmer temperature at 100 mb which implies a very cold troposphere.  The slug of warm stratospheric air originated --- and is usually found -- over Siberia.