CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 06-FEB-16 @ 6:20 PM EST

Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'

Snow Storm #2
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' SUN ... 07-FEB-16
Latest model guidance and forecast discussions suggest main event begins TUE.

Snow Storm #1
FINAL results here

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15th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecast summary here


Saturday, March 23, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4



Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wonder when it ends?