CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SAT ... 10-SEP-16 @ 2222 LT

Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
18th Annual 'Regular Season'
!!! - Starts as soon as the flakes start flying - !!!

16th Annual 'Season-total'
Enter your forecast at the web site between 01-NOV and 30-NOV

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Winter '15 / '16 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
17th Annual 'Regular Season'
No FINAL standings
Too few storms (2)

The two-thirds rule; forecasters are eligible for ranking in the final standings if they entered at least two-thirds of all storm contests. With only two contest-worthy storms this season ... those forecasters with one entry only would have been ineligible.

In the interest of fairness;
Three storms seems like the bare minimum

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15th Annual 'Season-total'
Verified forecasts here

Saturday, March 23, 2013

Winter '12 / '13 - Interim Standings 4



Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this season/s third Interim Standings.

SUMSQ errors for each contest storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged...to compute the standings.  Lower (higher) average Z-scores indicate more (less) skillful forecasts.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate Interim and Final standings. More or less the same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score(s) before the final grade is computed.

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Complete table of Interim stats by Forecaster at the Contest/s web site here.
Forecaster summary storm data set here.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Wonder when it ends?