CONTEST STATUS - Updated: WED ... 13-DEC-17 @ 8:30 PM EST

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
Snow Storm #1
Synoptiscope in VCP32

17th Annual 'Season-total'
Deadline for entries has passed
Forecasters' summary here

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Monday, January 25, 2016

Winter '15 / '16 - Snow Storm #1: Preliminary Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls for Friday though Sunday from CDUS41 and CXUS51 bulletins.  Good coverage and reporting.

DCA STP in question.
Vicinity reports suggest an under-measurement.
Sensitivity analysis on forecasts with a 30" verification shows no impact on top three finishers (HM flips) with minor shuffling in the pack's middle.
Note the SLRs are similar at IAD and BWI.

AP reporting on the controversy.
The two vicinity sites mentioned in the article are ~3 miles NNW (Adams Morgan neighborhood) and ~5 miles NW (Dalecarlia Reservoir) distant from DCA.

Meanwhile ... ~2 miles across the river to the east in Anacostia ... MD ... a trained spotter reported 19" and about the same distance to the SSE a 17" report from National Harbor ... VA

Reporting issues continue at SBY.
SBY/s 6" STP comes from a 'media' report carried in AKQ/s Public Information Statement (PNS).

HYA/s 14" STP comes from an 'amateur radio' report carried in BOX/s Public Information Statement (PNS).

Stations with STP but no SN:H2O had mixed freezing ... frozen ... and liquid precipitation.

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Boatload of new daily records for SAT ... 23-JAN-16
JFK - 30.3" (3.6"; 2005)
ABE - 30.2" (7.7"; 1966)
EWR - 27.5" (4.5"; 2005)
MDT - 26.4" (9.5"; 1982)
BWI - 25.5" (11.5"; 1935)
ISP - 23.4" (4.2"; 2005)
IAD - 22.1" (1.7"; 1982)
PHL - 19.4" (11.9"; 1935)
BDR - 12" (7.1"; 1965)
DCA - 11.3" (11"; 1935)
ACY - 10.1" (1.2"; 1948)
RIC - 5.3" (2.7"; 1908)
ORF - 1.2" (1"; 2000)
RDU - 1.2" (1.2", 1954) [22-JAN-16]

Areal coverage - The Great non-blizzard Blizzard JAN 2016
 
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Several new daily records exceeded those set in 1935.

Remarkably similar synoptics.
Parent HIGH over the upper Plains with an eastern extension over the NE.
Miller 'B' re-development off the Carolinas.
 
STP (liquid)
DC - 2.85"
BWI - 2.68"
RIC - 2.88"
 
 
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Please report any errors in Comments along with a link to the correct data.
Final results Tuesday evening.

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