CONTEST STATUS - Updated: SUN ... 17-FEB-19 @ 6:40 PM EST

Winter '18 / '19 - Snowfall Forecast Contests


20th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest

Interim Standings, as of Snow Storm #3
Details here

Snow Storm #5
Possible 'Call for Forecasts' MON ... 18-FEB-19

Snow Storm #4
FINAL Results here

Snow Storm #3
FINAL Results here

---
18th Annual 'Season-total' Snowfall Forecast Contest
Deadline for entries has passed.
Forecasts here
Verification period: 01-DEC-18 thru 31-MAR-19

---------------------------------------------------------
Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
---------------------------------------------------------
19th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here

---
17th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 18th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Four contest-worthy storms this season.  Tied with Winter '05 / '06 for 15th place.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings..

---
Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ)
SUMSQ is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

---
Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error - TAE)
TAE is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.

---
Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ)
RSQ is a supplementary measure of forecaster skill (higher the better).
Accounts for how well the variability of the observed snowfall was accounted for by the forecast.


---
Average Z-scores for Forecasters who submitted entries for all four snow storms.

---
Winter '16 / '17 was only the third season without a JAN snow storm.
 
---
Hope to see y'all again next winter.

2 comments:

Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ! Victory is finally mine!

TQ said...

Well played ... sir; very well played.