CONTEST STATUS - Last update: THU ... 20-APR-17 @ 9:40 PM EDT

Winter '17 / '18 - Snowfall Forecast Contests

19th Annual 'Regular Season'

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17th Annual 'Season-total'

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Winter '16 / '17 - Snowfall Forecast Contests
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18th Annual 'Regular Season'
FINAL results here
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16th Annual 'Season-total'
FINAL results here

Thursday, April 20, 2017

Winter '16 / '17 - 18th Annual 'Regular Season' Snowfall Forecast Contest: FINAL Results


Four contest-worthy storms this season.  Tied with Winter '05 / '06 for 15th place.
Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule … forecasters who entered at least THREE forecasts are included in this season's FINAL standings..

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  SUMSQ)
SUMSQ is the primary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude and distribution of the storm-total snowfall for all stations.

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  Total Absolute Error - TAE)
TAE is the secondary measure of forecaster skill (lower the better).
Accounts for the magnitude of snowfall at each station.

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Top 5 Forecasts (Error statistic:  RSQ)
RSQ is a supplementary measure of forecaster skill (higher the better).
Accounts for the how well the forecaster captured the variability of the observed snowfall (more / less observed where more / less forecast).

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Average Z-scores for Forecasters who submitted entries for all four snow storms.

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Winter '16 / '17 was only the third season without a JAN snow storm.
 
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Hope to see y'all again next winter.

2 comments:

Shillelagh said...

Thanks TQ! Victory is finally mine!

TQ said...

Well played ... sir; very well played.