Thursday, January 16, 2020

Winter '19 / '20 - Snow Storm #2: Outlook


UPDATE: 16-JAN-20 @ 7 PM EST
Progs trending away from a contest-worthy event.

Outside chance the evening runs will proffer a better solution.  Otherwise ... we/re back to waiting.

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Original post (15-JAN-20 @ 2:55 PM EST)
Third time's a charm ... three on a match ... ménage à trois ... three to get ready ... or whatever; another chance for this winter/s second and long-awaited contest-worthy snow storm appears in the offing over the upcoming weekend.

Latest progs from national and international numerical weather prediction models covering the medium range distribute more than nuisance snowfalls over two-thirds of the forecast area.

Mixed precipitation associated with over-running  / isentropic ascent and the possibility for development of a secondary surface LOW in the nearshore waters along the Gulf of Maine will present forecasters with multiple precipitation-type challenges.

Should short range model guidance continue the currently favorable medium-range scenario ...

Call for Forecasts would be issued on THU ... 16-JAN-20.
Deadline for entries would be 10:00 PM EST ... FRI ... 17-JAN-20
Verification would begin: 12:01 AM EST ... SAT ... 18-JAN-20

Image courtesy pivotaleweather
NEWxSFC web site here

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