Contest # 6 - Call for Forecasts

So as not to miss out on what could turn out to be a good coastal snow storm...going with the aggressive 12Z GFS / NAM progs for SAT/s event. If subsequent SR runs hew toward the ECMWF 'out-to-sea' scenario...Contest #6 will be cancelled before FRI/s deadline.

Deadline: 10:30 PM EST FRI…18 JAN 2008
Forecast verification begins: 12:01 AM EST SAT…19 JAN 2008

Enter your forecast via the Contest/s web site
Follow the link to 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Please enter 0.05 for trace amounts instead of a 'T.'

The Contest Administrator will post all forecasts to the NE_Wx Google Group within 30 minutes after the deadline and to the Contest web site the following day.

Contest subject to cancellation before the deadline…if forecast conditions warrant.

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Forecasters need to register once before entering…even if they were registered last year.

Registration is simple…requiring only a username and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address…a copy of your forecast will be sent to you. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

Each contest must have a minimum of seven (7) forecasters for the results to be included in the end-of-season standings.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general…contests are held whenever a decent…synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions…on deadline…for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. The Contest Administrator determines the deadlines for entries…verifies all forecasts…and publishes the final results to the Contest/s web site.

Please be sure to read the rules before entering the contest b/c your entry constitutes agreement to abide by them.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about error scoring…current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC…daily CPC teleconnection indices…daily NESDIS N-Hemi snow cover…and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) by pointing your browser here.
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Interim Standings

There have been five Contests to date. Under the ‘two-thirds’ rule…forecasters who have entered at least four forecasts are included in this interim summary.

Click to enlarge
Donsutherland1 re-claims 1st place after five snowstorms with a 'best 4 out of 5' average SUMSQ Z-Score of -1.134.
Shanabe (-0.982) dropped one click to second.
TQ (-0.589) holds on to 3rd place.
Raven (-0.514) on the strength of winning Contest # 5...jumped from sixth to fourth.

Data table @ the Contest web site.

The forecasters listed below have issued three forecasts to date. They will be included in the next interim summary if they enter a forecast for Contest #6.

bruced39
dmcguriman
ilibov
Mitchel Volk
pjc368

SUMSQ errors for each contest snow storm are normalized with a 'Z-score'...then averaged to compute the standings. Forecasters who have entered at least 2/3 of all snow storm contests are included in the standings.

If a forecaster has participated in more than two-thirds of all snow storm contests...then Z-scores from their 'best two-thirds' forecasts are used to calculate interim and final standings. Same idea as dropping the lowest quiz score before the final grade is computed.

Contest # 5 - Final Results

Last year/s top 'season-total' forecaster Raven won Contest # 5 and hit the trifecta placing first not only for SUMSQ error...but for Total Absolute Error and Average Absolute Error...as well.

His forecast has the lowest absolute errors @ CAR...BDR...and DCA.

Congratulations...Raven!

Full forecast verifications and contest summary @ the web site.

Contest # 5 - Verification

Preliminary storm-total snowfalls from CDUS41 and CF6 bulletins for Sunday and Monday.

No suspect reports.

New daily records
BGR: 12.3" (11.4"; 1978)
PWM: 10.5" (9"; 1982)
ORH: 6.2" (6"; 1910)
BDL: 6.3" (6.1" 1910)

Final results and storm summary on Wednesday.

Contest # 5 - Teleconnections

Unremarkable teleconnection indices for this event...altho +PNA and -AO are always good to have.

Contest # 5 - The Forecasts

Forecasts for Contest #5 have been posted on the web site

Forecasters: 17
Rookies: 5 (3...1st-timers)
Vets: 12

Storm-total Precipitation (STP)
MIN: 36.1" (Donald Rosenfeld)
MAX: 147.1" (pjc368)
AVG: 99.1"
Median: 101"

Contest # 5 - Call for Forecasts

Classic Miller-B (pdf) storm expected to affect the forecast area late Sunday night and throughout the day on Monday.

Deadline: 9:00 PM EST Sunday…13 January 2008
Forecast verification begins: 9:00 PM EST Sunday…13 January 2008
Forecast verification ends: 11:59 PM EST Monday…14 January 2008

Enter your forecast via the Contest/s web site
Follow the link to 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

Please enter 0.05 for trace amounts instead of a 'T.'

All forecasts will be posted to the NE_Wx Google Group by the Contest Administrator before 10 PM EST Sunday…13 January 2008 and to the Contest web site by Monday evening.

Contest subject to cancellation before the deadline…if forecast conditions warrant.

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Forecasters need to register once before entering…even if they were registered last year.

Registration is simple…requiring only a username and password. If you provide a valid e-mail address…a copy of your forecast will be sent to you. Please ensure your browser is enabled to accept first-party cookies.

Each contest must have a minimum of seven (7) forecasters for the results to be included in the end-of-season standings.

The NE.Wx Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is a multi-month event that continues into late March or early April. In general…contests are held whenever a decent…synoptic-scale storm rears its head and threatens at least a half-dozen forecast stations with more than nuisance snowfall amounts. Forecasters are called to post their 'storm total' snowfall predictions…on deadline…for 27 NWS / FAA observing stations scattered about New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions. The Contest Administrator determines the deadlines for entries…verifies all forecasts…and publishes the final results to the Contest/s web site.

Please be sure to read the rules before entering the contest b/c your entry constitutes agreement to abide by them.

You can find the Contest Rules and additional information about error scoring…current monthly snowfall climatology from NCDC…daily CPC teleconnection indices…daily NESDIS N-Hemi snow cover…and NWS Daily Climate Bulletins (CDUS41) by pointing your browser here.
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Going Negative - How Much for Dulles?

For lesser daily snowfalls and snowfalls of 12" or more...there/s a higher chance of occurrence with +PNA...+NAO...and -AO. -NAO is preferred for 7 - < 12" amounts.



With +PNA...+NAO is more likely for daily snowfall below 7".



With +NAO...-AO is more likely for lesser daily snowfalls and daily snowfalls of 12" or more.

Dulles is a short distance WNW of DCA…yet IAD/s snowfall climatology is 35% greater than DCA. Each station/s micro-climate and elevation may be why more snow is observed at IAD (307” MSL) than DCA (59’ MSL).

Neither location will ever be considered a snow capital but there are interesting differences between them for the preferred sign of NAO.

For the Big 3…
For daily snowfalls up to 5” and +12” amounts…
IAD prefers +PNA…+NAO…-AO
DCA prefers +PNA…-NAO…-AO

For 5 < 7”…
IAD: +PNA…+NAO…+AO
DCA: +PNA…+NAO…-AO

For 7 - < 12”…
IAD: +PNA…-NAO…-AO
DCA: +PNA…+NAO…-AO

+PNA and -AO are common contributing factors @ both stations except for 5 - < 7” amounts. The sign of NAO flip flops taking the opposite sign between daily snowfall categories and stations.

The more stations examined...the -NAO CW b/comes more and more questionable.

It/s Miller Time!

The 12z GooFuS dangled a bright...shiney object in front of a lot of eyeballs on the EC today with it/s medium range forecast for a Miller-A event early next week.

Here/s what the short wave/s blastocyst looked like this afternoon...way out over the PAC...



No surprise the progs didn/t show any reflection of the feature belo 5H since it/s floating over the axis of a flat ridge. At this point...it/s all upper level NRG...the so-called 'upper level disturbance.' After it comes ashore and crosses the Rockies...column stretching would deepen the circulation with cyclogenesis in the NW GOM.

Partly Cloudy...Partly Sunny...Mostly Stoopit

What part of the word 'partly' is so hard to understand?

The National Weather Circus sez 'partly cloudy' and 'partly sunny' are the same animal. Opaque clouds covering 3/10 - 6/10 of the sky. 'Sunny' is used during the day and 'cloudy' is used at night. Vanilla is as vanilla does.

Other meteorologists say "partly sunny means a mixture of sun and clouds is expected, but more sun than clouds. Partly cloudy also means a mixture of sun and clouds is expected, but more clouds than sun."

'Partly sunny' or 'partly cloudy' is "...a mixture of clouds and sun." OK. No problem with that part.

Now consider the following...
The forecast can call for a 'sunny'...'mostly sunny'...or 'partly sunny' sky. If 'partly sunny' means 'more sun than clouds'...does that mean ‘partly sunny’ is sunnier than ‘mostly sunny?

Or how about this...
The forecast can call for a 'cloudy'...'mostly cloudy'...or 'partly cloudy' sky. If 'partly cloudy' means 'more clouds than sun'...does that mean ‘partly cloudy’ is cloudier than ‘mostly cloudy?’

What stoopit comes up with this 'partly sunny is the same as partly cloudy' and 'partly is more than mostly' stuff...anyway?