"The paper shows that the NAO and the AO have different impacts on winter NH (surafce air temperature) SAT. The variability of other atmospheric variables related to the AO and the NAO is discussed."A bit wonkish...but a still a good read.
Beautiful dendritic patterns over Italy/s Alps as observed last Sunday from space.
Note cloud cover to the north over Switzerland...Austria....France...and Germany.
Map
"Barrow at the northern tip of Alaska had 21″ of snow in 28 days (they average 29″ per year…it’s a cold desert up there).
"Fairbanks has only had two days warmer than average in the last month and a half. During October and early November, Fairbanks has been 8 degrees colder than average!
"On the southern coast, Anchorage has only had one month this year that has been warmer than average. They haven’t reached 30 degrees since Oct. 22 and the last three weeks have been five degrees colder than average.
"The water off Alaska is colder than average and the sun won’t be of any help until spring. That heavy, cold air will start building southward soon. The surface Arctic icecap grew this year and is now at its greatest areal extent since 2002."
"In a telephone interview yesterday from his New Hampshire home, Mr. D’Aleo said he is confident the rest of this month and December will be cold and potentially snowy. He said ice coverage in the Arctic has rebounded quickly and snow cover in that part of the world is at its usual depth for this time of year. He said that is important for this area, because air masses from the polar region head south toward Central Massachusetts in December.Ice coverage...
"“I suspect many of us will see snow on the ground before Thanksgiving,” he said.
"Mr. D’Aleo, however, also noted that he is less confident now than he was three weeks ago about a warm-up in January and February."
In addition to asking Paul Knight...WJAC-TV also wanted to know what Eric Horst...founder of the Campus Weather Service and director of the Weather Information Center at Millersville University...thought about the upcoming winter in terms of...
"More / Less snow than averageEric has a decidedly different take regarding ENSO...
Warmer / colder than average
More / Less snow than last year
Warmer / colder than last year
Timing / type of the bigger storms
Etc.
…and some reasoning behind the forecast."
"Regarding the winter outlook…as you surely know, we do NOT have a signal from ENSO. Last winter’s rapid ramp up of a strong La Nina was a clear signal for a milder and less-snowy winter in PA…and that of course panned out nicely. With a neutral ENSO this winter, there’s no clear signal…and as I like to say it’s therefore more of an “anything goes kind of winter.” You can research past neutral ENSO winters and find both above and below temp seasons and above and below snowfall seasons, as well as many near-normal seasons.WJAC-TV reports California University of Pennsylvania declined to participate in their survey.
"So which way will this winter tip? I feel that’s hard to say, because the winter will be guided by more subtle, short-lived factors such as NAO (which biases somewhat in accordance to changing SSTs in the north Atlantic) and the EPO which plays off mid-latitude pacific patterns. So, these are the signals I’ll be watching in the months to come. Unfortunately, there’s no reliable way to forecast either Index. The UKmet folks do try to model NAO…and they are forecasting a “near-neutral” NAO overall. Of course, on any given week there can be major swings negative or positive. So, I think we’d be wise to track NAO and EPO this winter to make medium-range (5 – 15 day) forecasts; big storms tend to develop when the index flips, as we saw the past few days.
"The bottom line: this winter will almost certainly be snowier and colder than last winter (which won’t be hard for most parts of PA), but I see NO strong signal to forecast a much below temp or much above snowfall winter. That can of course happen—it only takes one big storm to push snowfall much above normal…in fact, the Poconos will likely be above normal based on yesterday’s big storm padding the numbers already! Anyway, my sense is that PA will see a near- to slightly below normal temp winter and near- to somewhat above-normal snowfall winter."
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