Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #2 - Winter '08 / '09

Round 2! After a slow start...we/re off the races.

Good prospects for a good dump as a second...stronger wave cruises into the forecast area on Friday for Snow Storm #2. Progs continue the idea of enhanced omega from coupled jet structure and strong...lo-level forcing courtesy warm-air advection.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here.

Deadline: Thursday...18 December...2008 @ 10:30 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 AM EST Friday...19 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter for the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

If you are making your first forecast this year...you/ll need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contest-worthy event?

Snow Storm #1: The Forecasts

Twelve forecasters including three rookies for the inaugural event. Not much of a storm...but a good warm-up for Friday/s event.

Station forecasts here.



Forecaster consensus for a northern New England event.



No support from teleconnections. Just lucky to get a barely contest-worthy storm.



Verification began last night @ midnight. Snowfall has all but ended over the forecast area at post time. Preliminary storm-total snowfalls will be posted Thursday evening with the final results available on the web site Friday evening.

Coupled Jets

Good looking signature ahead of Friday/s snow storm.

Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the entrance region of the polar jet advect cold air into the storm from the NW. Transverse...ageostrophic circulations in the exit region of the sub-tropical jet advect moist air into the storm from the SE. Enhanced omega occurs at the intersection of these circulations.

GooFuS also throws in some additional forcing with strong...low-level...warm air advection.

Could be a memorable event.

Call for Forecasts: Snow Storm #1 - Winter '08 / '09

The season has started!

Warm-advection snowfalls expected late Tuesday night and continuing into Wednesday across northern New England. Monday evening/s NAM forecast projections have reversed course from its earlier anemic trend and now suggest storm-total snowfalls will be contest-worthy.

Make the best forecast and you/ll win one month of FREE access to StormVista GOLD. Details here

Deadline: Tuesday...16 December 2008 @ 10:59 PM EST

Forecast element: storm-total snowfall
Verification period begins: 12:01 EST Wednesday...17 December 2008

Enter your forecast here.
Follow the link from 'Enter Storm Forecast.'

More prizes will be awarded at the end of winter to the best over-all forecaster. Details here.

As always...there/s no cost...or fee...or annoying requests for personal information to enter.

New and returning forecasters will need to create an account (user name / password / valid e-mail...if you want a copy of your forecast sent to your Inbox) before entering a forecast.

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The Northeast Weather Snowfall Forecast Contest (NEWxSFC) is celebrating its 10th anniversary this winter. The Contest began during the '99/'00 season on USENET/s ne.weather news-group. It/s the longest...continuously held snowfall forecasting contest for the NE CONUS on the Internet.

The Contest is open to any and all of the following:
Amateur and professional forecasters; broadcasters with or without trained Seals; weather-biz types and wanna-bees; wish-casters...astrologers...and other class of dreamers; Pollyannas or Cassandras; registered Nostradamusts; non-violent megalomaniacs; woolly-bear caterpillars or their agents; pest detectives...NE.Wx Usenet NG or GoogleGroup regulars and lurkers...refugees from EUSWx...StormVista...Golden Snowball...and meteorologists.

What is a contesy-worthy event?

Synopti-scope® Detects Storm Signal

(updated below)

May not have too much longer to wait for this season/s inaugural snow storm.

Today/s 96-hour projection from the 12z GooFuS resolves a weak...warm advection event over northern portions of the forecast area mid-week.

The polar HIGH located north-northeast of the wave weakens slightly but holds its position as the LOW moves into the waters off Cape Cod and the Gulf of Maine.

Snowfall outlook...using 10:1 QFP...produces a 5 - 7" swath along and either side of a line from BGM - CON - BGR.

UPDATE:
Snow still seen as likely Tuesday night and Wednesday over northern New England; however...QPF has been trending lower today. Local NWS WFOs and HPC all leaning toward a nuisance-type event...all of which raises doubts about whether this storm will be contest-worthy.

GO / NO GO decision after this evening/s model runs.

First Nor'easter - Winter '08 / '09

First nor'easter to affect the forecast area this season was a dud.

Respectable storm-total snowfalls were scarce...
CAR - 4.1
BGR - 4
PWM - T
CON - 1
BTV - 9.2
ALB - 0.1
BGM - 3.6

NWP did a good job waving off this event by picking up on its predominate liquid / freezing character several earlier in the week.


Click image to animate.

Coastal Teaser #2 - DEC '08

(updated below - update II)

Healthy-looking nor'easter progged for end of the week...one that could affect about half the forecast area with this year/s inaugural contest storm. There/s a retreating HIGH as the storm gains latitude; however...cyclogenesis off the VA Capes would keep some of the cold air from escaping.

QPF @ 10:1 spits out 10"+ for ALB...CON...PWM...and BGR. Columns are currently depicted as cold enough for higher ratios...but let/s not get too far ahead of the story. Hard to tell where the cloud-tops are from GooFuS soundings b/c the moisture layers aloft are always depicted as being too deep.



Better get a snow storm in now while there/s cold air afoot b/c LR solutions have a decidedly 'mild' look to them well into Week 2.

If this scenario plays out...a call for forecasts would be made Wednesday evening with a late Thursday deadline.

UPDATE:
12/9/12z progs not all that encouraging for enough frozen precipitation at more than a handful of forecast stations nor are they in good agreement wrt timing. Yesterday/s GooFuS had the event Friday into Saturday...now it/s moved up a day.



HPC paints a 40% probability mainly over northern New England...with icing farther south across CT and MA.

GO / NO GO decision pending this evening/s model run(s).

UPDATE II:
12/10/00z NAM continues recent trend in its depiction of THU / FRI nor'easter as mainly a cold rain event over the forecast area with narrow band of IP / SN limited to northern edge of precipitation shield.

Potential appears marginal at this time for adequate conditions to warrant a call for forecasts.

Season-total Snowfall Forecast Contest - Winter '08 / '09

(updated below - Update II)

Deadline for entries has passed.

There were 30 entries this year...seven (7) of which came from Rookies. Welcome and good luck.

Good to see a strong turn out of Veteran forecasters...too. Last year/s contest winner 'duxpond' was a rookie back then and he/s back this year to defend his title.

Everyone/s forecast will be posted later today on the Contest/s web page.

Just for grins...this year/s forecasts were verified against last year/s snowfall totals with these results...ranked 1 to 10:

• garymcm
  
• TQ
  
• bubbler86
  
• Donald Rosenfeld
  
• jackzig
  
• weatherT®
  
• duxpond©
  
• Mitchel Volk
  
• Raven
  
• Don Rooney
  

® = rookie
© = defending champion

Update:


Click image to enlarge.

Update II:
Ranked by storm total precipitation.
Blue (red) cells indicate lowest (highest) tercile.



Period-of-record normal (PORN) snowfall: 916.9"
5 (26) forecasts below (above) PORN.
Consensus forecast: 18.9% above PORN
Minimum storm total precipitation (STP) forecast: 72% of PORN
Maximum STP forecast: 74% above PORN

All forecasts have been posted to the Contest/s web site.

Deadline...

...for the 8th Annual 'Season-total' snowfall forecast contest is looming large in the window.

Forecasts must be entered NLT 11:59 PM EST...Sunday 30 NOV 2008.

You can submit your snowfall forecast for Winter '08 / '09 here.

You/ll need to create an account with a 'user name' and password...even if you/ve entered the Contest in year/s past. If you provide a valid e-mail address...a copy of your entry will be sent to your inbox.

Everyone/s forecast will be posted on the NEWxSFC/s web site within a day or two of Sunday/s deadline.

Next up...the regular snowfall forecasting season...where each storm is its own Contest. Every time you make the best forecast...you win...in addition to prestigious bragging rights...a month of free access to StormVista/s GOLD!

sCAST - Winter '08 / '09

AER/s sCAST has been released in past years in late NOV or early DEC. No sign of it yet...but while we wait...here/s a thumbnail sketch about how it works.

sCAST considers these elements when making its winter forecast:

Eurasia/s OCT snow cover

Sea level perssures

Air temperatures

Atmosphereic energy flux

ENSO state

Global warming trend

NAO / AO state

sCAST developer Dr. Judah Cohen explains...

"...the link between October snow cover in Siberia and the Northern Hemisphere's winter temperatures, and snowfall.

"October is the month when snow begins to pile up across Siberia. October is also the month that the Siberian high, one of three dominant weather centers across the Northern Hemisphere, forms.

"In years when Siberian snow cover is above normal, a strengthened Siberian high and colder surface temperatures across Northern Eurasia develop in the fall.


""The result is a warming in Earth's stratosphere that occurs in January," said Cohen. "This eventually descends from the stratosphere to Earth's surface over a week or two in January, making for a warmer winter in Northern Hemisphere high latitudes. However, in mid-latitudes it turns colder, so winters in the northeastern U.S. and eastern Europe are likely to be colder and snowier than normal."

Eurasia/s OCT 2008 snow cover of 8.88 km² was 13% below PORN (10.19 km²) this year... suggesting a generally mild winter b/c NAO/AO will be positive in JAN. Positive NAO/AO are a consequence of a strong polar vortex which keeps the coldest air at high latitudes.